Summer Movie League 2016: Week 2

Recap:

Week 2 is in the books.  I expected that this weekend would tell us a lot about the fortunes of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and what it told us is that the long-term outlook is not good.  Despite the massive opening weekend and initial claims that it was critic-proof, it suffered from the bad reviews and bad word of mouth, plummeting a staggering 69% from its opening weekend to its 2nd weekend, taking in $51.3 million. That is on the low-end of what the estimates were, which had it pegged somewhere in the $50-70 million range.  To date, BvS has pulled in $260.4 million.  I think it’s a pretty safe bet that with the summer season less than a month away it will struggle to hit $400 million.

This is nothing short of a disaster for Joe.  He has three other movies on his roster that are releasing this month, Hardcore Henry, The Jungle Book, and Keanu.  He needs all three of those movies to outperform their expectations.  Currently, all are enjoying good reviews.  I’ll get to Hardcore Henry down in the preview section, but early buzz is very promising for The Jungle Book, with a 100% t-meter after 13 reviews, and Keanu currently sits at 73% after 15 reviews.  The positive reviews for both are glowing, the question is what kind of audience do they find.  The Disney live-action adaptations have proved to be moneymakers, though it’s tough to gauge how much of a moneymaker they are from film to film.  Last year’s Cinderella received far more critical acclaim that Maleficent but made $40 million less at the box office.  2010’s Alice in Wonderland remains the biggest earner, having taken in $330 million, though that might not be in the same category given the story was completely different.  The Jungle Book should perform well, but given that it is releasing two weekends before the summer season kicks off, it may limit its overall box office. Boxoffice.com predicts a total gross of $190 million.  If the reviews stay in the 90-100% range, I could see the actual number being slightly higher.  As for Keanu, which boxoffice.com projects for $50 million, that could very well depend on how much appeal Key & Peele generate beyond their Comedy Central audience.

Meanwhile, the other competing film this weekend was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which pulled in $11.5 in its 2nd week.  That’s only a 37% drop from its opening weekend. Its domestic gross currently stands at $36.6 million.  I think it has a very good chance to nearly double that number by the time it ends its run, ending up somewhere close to $70 million.  It also jumped a percentage point on the T-meter from 24% to 25%. That’s unlikely to make a huge difference for Tim in the long run, but given that he only spent $4 on the movie, if he can make close to $20 million from it, it’s not a great value, but it’s also not a wasted pick either, as he rounded out his roster with it.

Preview:

This week has three new movies dropping into the competition.  Paula has The Boss, Chris gets Demolition, and Joe sees his 2nd release in  Hardcore Henry.  Early reviews for The Boss are very poor, and will only lend credence to the argument that Paul Feig is the only person in Hollywood who knows how to properly use Melissa McCarthy.  It’s at 12% after 18 reviews.  Demolition, a Jake Gyllenhaal movie, has mixed reviews, currently sitting at 50% after 36 reviews (it played some festivals earlier).  Hardcore Henry currently sits at 77% with 22 reviews currently.  I’m guessing The Boss will perform like the other bad McCarthy movie directed by her husband, Ben Falcone, Tammy, which only made $84.5 million.  Not looking likely that Paula will generate much revenue from it.  Demolition, despite the presence of Gyllenhaal, who has quietly turned into one of the better actors in Hollywood, feels like it will be totally lost in the shuffle by audiences.  I’m guessing Hardcore Henry performs similar to a Jason Statham movie, making somewhere between $25-35 million.  Given the low investments, nobody spent more than $4 on any of these movies, it’s hard to expect much in the way of returns.  I think it’s a safe bet that Hardcore Henry will generate the most revenue of these three, based on its positive reviews so far.

Standings:

1. Joe – $75.5 million
($30) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – 75.5 million
2. Tim – $9.15 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $9.15 million
3. Everybody else (Paula, Chris, Greg, me)

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