Summer Movie League: Week 3

Recap:

The third weekend has been completed in the Summer Movie League, and it was another weekend that was not all that pretty.  The three rostered movies that opened this weekend all performed badly.  The Boss won the weekend, but with a paltry $23.6 million.  That is a bit higher than I was expecting, as I thought it would land somewhere around $18-19 million because of the poor reviews.  Speaking of those poor reviews, after 96 reviews it currently sits at 18% on the T-Meter.  It’s possible a few more reviews could push it another point or two in either direction before it’s all said and done.  At the moment though, that’s only good enough for $4.26 million in the bank for Paula.  She paid $5 for it, and, even at that small amount, it’s probably not going to be a great return on investment.  She’ll be lucky if she can get $15 million out of it.

In other new releases, Hardcore Henry, which severely underperformed its expectations, taking in only $5.1 million.  This movie was predicted to make anywhere from $8-11 million, and I had seen an argument on it’s behalf late last week that when an action flick opens on more than 3000 screens (Hardcore Henry had 3015) it is almost impossible for it to not make $10 million on its opening weekend.  Well, perhaps we witnessed (or did not witness, as the case may be) a miracle this weekend, because Hardcore Henry made about half of that.  As someone who saw it in the theater Friday night, the fact that it underperformed did not surprise me, and I know that the people who didn’t see it made the right decision.  It’s a one-tricky pony whose gimmick wears thin very quickly.  Still, the T-Meter is at 51% based on 86 reviews, a number that was in the high 70s early last week.  That is a grand total of $2.6 million added to Joe’s total.

Oh by the way, Demolition made $1.1 million at a whopping 854 screens.  It sits right at 50% on the T-Meter after 116 reviews.  That’s good for $550K for Chris, who quietly gets on the board.  I don’t know if it will expand its theater count next weekend or in the coming weeks, and even though Chris bought it for $1, you can’t feel good about it.  It’s probably a movie that shouldn’t have been rostered.  But hindsight is 20/20 in situations like that.  Every one of us in the league have had at least a few movie like that.  It’s also going to make Chris’ strategy for how he built his roster to succeed, as he went all in on Captain America: Civil War and needed some of his smaller movies to hit and push up his overall numbers.  This is only one movie out of seven, but it lends credence to the idea that his roster is top-heavy.

In retreads, Batman v Superman continued its downward spiral, taking in another 23.4 million, being narrowly edged out by The Boss.  At least this weekend it only fell by 54% as opposed to nearly 70% like it did last weekend.  It’s possible that it could come in lower than the $388 estimate I saw after its opening weekend.  The news continues to get worse for Joe as its total now stands at $296 million, but that’s only $86 million for Joe to bank.  Lucky for him The Jungle Book is right around the corner and it looks poised to make some money for him.  Tim continued to get a little bit more out of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2.  It took in $6.4 million, and raised its total to $46.8 million, which is $13.1 million for Tim, as its T-meter also jumped up to 28%.  It should earn him somewhere around $20 by the end of its run, given how gradual the box office drop  has been (37% last weekend, 42% this weekend).  It’s something.

Preview:

The big movie coming out this weekend is the live-action version of Disney’s The Jungle Book.  It is sitting at 96% currently, based on 47 reviews.  The number of reviews should spike soon, and I don’t expect its T-meter to suffer for it.  This should be a big hit, which will benefit Joe greatly.  I’ve seen long-range forecasts that had projected it in the low $60 millions range, and I’ve seen an estimate this week hovering around $70.  If the reviews continue to be glowing, I could see that number being exceeded.  This will no doubt be Joe’s biggest earner, and given that he paid $19 for it, it should be a good return on investment.

This week I get on the board with my first movie releasing, Barbershop: The Next Cut.  It’s still very early, but based on 9 reviews, it has a 78% T-meter.  The original Barbershop had an 82% T-meter rating and made $75 million at the box office.  The sequel was 68% on the T-meter and made $65 million.  Given that the sequel was 12 years ago, it could be hard to gauge its performance, but estimates put it at a $17-20 million opening weekend.  If it stays north of 60% on the T-meter, I’ll be very pleased with any profits I get from it if it does those kinds of numbers.  I think I have an outside shot to make $30 million from this film, and given that I only paid $3 for it, I’ll take that.

Nobody picked up Criminal, which I’m guessing Ryan Reynolds now wishes he hadn’t done and wasn’t being released so close to Deadpool.

Standings:

1. Joe – $88.6 million
($30) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – $86 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $2.6 million

2. Tim – $13.1 million
($4)My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $13.1 million

3. Paula – $4.26 million
($5) The Boss – $4.26 million

4. Chris – $0.55 million
($1) Demolition – $550K

5. Greg & I

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