Summer Movie League: Week 4

Recap:

Well, to say that estimates for The Jungle Book were low is an understatement.  Initial projections were in the low-to-mid $60 millions.  Then it projections jumped up close to $80 million based on the positive reviews.  On Saturday, the weekend estimates had it just over $90 million based on its Friday performance.  Now, it’s looking like a total of $103.6 million.  The film has been very well received, and was favorably reviewed here on this site.  It has settled in at a 95% T-meter rating based on 182 reviews, so that number is more or less fixed with maybe a +/-1% depending on some additional reviews.  It’s also a film that has a wide appeal and should perform very well next weekend.  I think it has a very good chance to hit the $250 cap, which is probably unexpected based on the $19 that it sold for during our auction draft.  I think it is safe to say that at $19 it was a legitimate steal and a bargain.

Speaking of bargains, Barbershop: The Next Cut looks like it could be a nice surprise for me.  It took in just over $20 million this weekend, which is slightly lower than Barbershop 2 but right in line with the original.  Those went on to make $65 and $75 million, respectively.  It’s possible that Barbershop: The Next Cut could slightly exceed those based on the surprising 92% rating it has on the T-meter.  That is only based on 59 total reviews, so it’s possible that number could drop if more reviews come in, but that will be a nice little earner.  If it makes as much as its predecessors, that should give me close to $60 million, but even if it doesn’t quite reach the earnings of the first two movies, I should get close to $50 million, which is a great return on investment for a $3 movie that was my last pick.  It’s interesting how these things can play out, as at the end of the auction I tried to buy My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, but Tim had more money left than I did, so he was able to outbid me, and so I picked up Barbershop: The Next Cut because I missed out on My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2.  Which is just to say that if you’re going to win, there’s always a little bit of luck involved.  Hopefully it is a nice supplement to other solid earners on my roster.

Elsewhere, The Boss dropped nearly 57% to $10.2 million, Batman V Superman took another 60+% tumble down to $9 million, MBFGW2 made another $3.3 million, Hardcore Henry dropped 71% to $1.48 million, and Demolition got nailed by a wrecking ball with only $307K (a 72% drop).  None of these are encouraging numbers for any of the people who own these movies because of their poor T-meters.

Preview:

The only film opening this weekend on anyone’s roster is The Huntsman: Winter’s War, which is getting absolutely slaughtered by the critics.  It is sitting at a paltry 16% based on 55 reviews.  Paula paid $7 for that movie, and given the incredibly poor reviews, she’s not going to get much production from it.

Looking a little further ahead, Keanu and Mother’s Day release the following week.  No reviews yet for Mother’s Day, though I don’t expect particularly glowing reviews when they do arrive.  Keanu is currently at 75% on it’s T-meter and could be a good sleeper earner.  After that comes Captain America: Civil War which already has 18 reviews and is 94% positive.

Standings:

1. Joe – $188.8 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $87.2 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $97.4 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.2 million

2. Me – $18.6 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut – $18.6 million

3.Tim – $14.6 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $14.6 million

4. Paula – $7.7 million
($5) The Boss – $7.7 million

5. Chris – $0.92 million
($1) Demolition – $0.92 million

6. Greg – $0

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