Summer Movie League: Week 6

Recap:

It’s beginning to feel like an old refrain, but The Jungle Book continues to be king of the jungle in the pre-Captain America world.  It took in another $42.4 million this weekend, to push its to-date total to $252.1 million.  At 94% on its Tomatometer that’s $236.9 million in revenue for Joe, and even with Captain America: Civil War hitting theaters this coming weekend, it should probably hit the $250 million cap for him next weekend.  It’s quite the accomplishment, and something he desperately needed given the returns he got from Batman V Superman.  Speaking of BVS, it actually lost another percentage point on Rotten Tomatoes, dropping down to 27%, so it actually lost money for Joe this week, dropping from a $90.3 million total last week to $87.8 now.

More bad news for Joe, Keanu failed to live up to even modest box office expectations, taking in an estimated $9.4 million.  That’s far below the expected opening estimates in the high teens that I saw.  Reviews were quite positive, settling in at 75%, which gives Joe $7.1 million, but that has to be a disappointment considering how much promotion was done for this comedy from Key & Peele.  He needs to hope it is one of the rare movies that gains a word of mouth wave of momentum that pushes it to a prolonged box office run.  Unfortunately, that seems unlikely.  He’s going to need a big performance from Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising or he could be in trouble.

In other areas, Mother’s Day also opened below it’s expected $10-12 million, making only $8.3 million.  It also got lambasted on the T-meter, garner only an 8% rating, which was good for only $664k in revenue for Tim.  This movie could be a worse earner for Tim than Demolition was for Chris.  In its 2nd weekend, The Huntsman: Winter’s War made $9.4 million, moving its total to $34 million and earning Paula 5.4 million.  Barbershop: The Next Cut sits at $44.7 million, which is $41.1 million in profit for me.  The Boss raised its total to $56.1 million, and has earned Paula $11.2 so far.

Preview:

There’s only one release next weekend, and it’s the one that everyone has been waiting for.  Captain America: Civil War officially kicks off the summer movie season and it should do gangbusters at the box office.  Something close to $200 million is not out of the realm of possibility, and with a 94% rating after 90 reviews so far, Chris will keep almost all of it.  There will not be a lot to say about it because it will likely hit the $250 million cap by the end of its 2nd weekend.

Because of that, I’m going to spend some time breaking down Chris’ roster and assessing his chances.  He spent big on Captain America: Civil War which limited his options after that.  It was and is the surest bet to hit the cap, so in that sense you can’t put a price on peace of mind.  However, I think there were better movies to be had than when he ended up paying for.  I have a hard time seeing Central Intelligence ($10) making significant earnings for him.  Boxoffice.com projects a cumulative box office of $155 million, with $52 million its opening weekend.  That’s certainly possible, but I think it’s likely the T-meter is somewhere around 50%, topping out at 60% in a best case scenario.  More likely, it’s at or below 50% and it nets him $50 million.  Now You See Me 2 ($4) is unlikely to crack triple digits, and having seen the first movie, I doubt its T-meter will be over 50%.  Maybe he gets a combined $100 million from these two films, but it could be as low as $75 million.  Me Before You ($1) and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping ($2) should have limited appeal, maybe generating another $30-50 million combined.  Demolition ($1) has already failed him.

That leaves him Pete’s Dragon ($6), which comes out in August.  Generally speaking, August releases at the end of summer can make money, but they rarely are the big summer earners.  I don’t think it’ll make anywhere near the money that The Jungle Book has made this spring.  More likely, it will be on the lower end of the Disney live-action releases, coming in around $160-180 million.  Maybe it gets good reviews and that pushes his earnings up.  Best case scenario, he could approach $500 million.  I don’t see the best case scenario.  If Pete’s Dragon doesn’t perform big and Central Intelligence performs closer to a typical Kevin Hart movie than a typical Dwayne Johnson movie, he could struggle to hit $400 million.

Standings:

1. Joe – $336.3 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $87.8 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $236.9 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.5 million
($3) Keanu – $7.1 million

2. Me – $41.1 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut

3.Tim – $16.7 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $16 million
($2) Mother’s Day – $0.7 million

4. Paula – $16.6 million
($5) The Boss – $11.2 million
($7) The Huntsman: Winter’s War – $5.4 million

5. Chris – $1 million
($1) Demolition – $1 million

6. Greg – $0

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