Summer Movie League: Week 9

Recap:

This past weekend saw three openings, and two of them performed below their expectations.  Surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly since animated features are pretty dependable, The Angry Birds Movie lived up to its expectations.  What was definitely surprising, though, is that it ended up #1 at the box office for the weekend, making an estimated $39 million, which was about $6 million ahead of its closest competitor, Captain America: Civil War.  Sadly for me, while it was the top earner, its T-meter dropped backed down to 43% after starting last week off in the 60% range.  With 120 reviews under its belt, that percentage is not going to change dramatically one way or the other.  That puts it at $16.8 million that I take in from it.  I’m hoping that because it is the only animated release until Finding Dory that it will have some legs and generate some sustained business through June and into July as more kids get out of school.  Next weekend being Memorial Day weekend should help sustain some stronger than normal 2nd weekend numbers.  Still, I’ll be lucky to get $40 million out of it, all told, which is not a good return on my $7 bid for it.  However, this was probably about the best case scenario for a movie based on an app.

Elsewhere, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising came in way below expectations, generating only $21.8 million in revenue.  That is far below the $49.5 million opening Neighbors enjoyed two years ago.  Its reviews remained in the mid-to-high 60s for most of the week, but with 135 reviews it has sagged a bit to 61% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is only $13.3 million in revenue for Joe.  He spent $11 on it in the auction.  It’s hard to see it making him more than $50 million by the end of its run.

The 3rd opener this weekend was The Nice Guys, a really enjoyable buddy cop genre movie that, despite very positive reviews (90% T-meter) and extended advertising dating back to December, failed to find much of an audience.  It took in an estimated $11.3 million, which is $10.2 million that Paula banks.  It’s possible that she ends up getting about $30 million from it, and she only bid $4 for it.

In repeat business, Money Monster also helped Paula out, netting her a total of $14.9 million so far, which is very good for $1 movie.  Mother’s Day lost a percentage point off its T-meter, which canceled out any minimal additions Tim made from the end of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2.  Everything else basically settled more toward the ends of their runs.

Preview:

Next weekend is Memorial Day weekend, marking a four-day weekend at the box office.  Opening are two movies on my roster, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass.  Neither film has generated much enthusiasm, with X-Men sitting at 51%, with the consensus calling it “middling.”  Given the success of X-Men: Days of Future Past, it’s nothing short of a disappointment.  It’s already got 123 reviews, but that number could easily wind up at or over 200 by the weekend, so that 51% number could actually fluctuate a few points one way or the other.  Alice could also go anywhere.  It sits at 44% with only 16 reviews.  The positive reviews are reluctantly positive while the negative ones are very negative.  It’s possible that 44% is the height of its rating and it will only plummet from this point on.  I doubt it is possible that the film will get above 50%.  My only hope with these two movies is that despite the mediocre and/or poor reviews that Memorial Day weekend brings out the audiences regardless.  Next weekend won’t cause a reshuffling of the standings below at all, but it will go a long way toward telling whether or not my current third place standing is a mirage or something sustainable.  This week has become my reckoning.

Standings:

1. Joe – $372 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $88.7 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $250 million
($11) Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising – $13.3 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.4 million
($3) Keanu – $15.6 million
($3) Sausage Party – $0

2. Chris – $246 million
($46) Captain America: Civil War – $250 million
($1) Demolition – $1 million
($0) Bad Moms – -5 million
($10) Central Intelligence
($4) Now You See Me 2
($2) Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
($6) Pete’s Dragon

3. Me – $65.3 million
($7) The Angry Birds Movie – $16.8 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut – $48.5 million
($10) Alice Through the Looking Glass – $0
($29) X-Men: Apocalypse – $0
($8) Ice Age: Collision Course – $0
($12) The BFG – $0
($1) Free State of Jones – $0

4. Paula – $45.4 million
($7) The Huntsman: Winter’s War – $7.9 million
($5) The Boss – $12.4 million
($4) The Nice Guys – $10.2 million
($1) Money Monster – $14.9 million
($39) Finding Dory – $0
($5) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – $0
($5) Legend of Tarzan – $0
5.Tim – $19.8 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $17.3 million
($2) Mother’s Day – $2.5 million
($26) Suicide Squad – $0
($20) Star Trek Beyond – $0
($7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $0
($6) The Conjuring 2 – $0
($3) Kubo and the Two Strings – $0

6. Greg – $0
($8) Ghostbusters – $0
($17) Independence Day: Resurgence – $0
($19) The Secret Life of Pets – $0
($6) Warcraft – $0
($17) Jason Bourne – $0
($3) The Purge: Election Day – $0

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