Summer Movie League: Week 12

Recap:

There were three new releases at the box office this weekend, and they ended up taking the top 3 spots in earnings this weekend.  The Conjuring 2 was the #1 movie, scaring up $40.4 million in revenue.  It was also the best reviewed of the three releases, generating a 76% on Rotten Tomatoes.  That’s only slightly down from the opening weekend of The Conjuring at $41.8 million.  That film also came out in the summer, though in late July, so I expect that The Conjuring 2 will still perform well, but get lost a bit in the shuffle and fall a little short of the $137 million that The Conjuring ended up with.  I think something around $115 or $120 million is within reason, which would make for a pretty decent haul of around $90 million for Tim.

Falling into the also-ran category are Warcraft and Now You See Me 2.  Neither of these was warmly received by critics or audiences.  Warcraft only made $24.2 million domestically and with a 26% T-meter.  Meanwhile, Now You See Me 2 only made $22.4 million, though with a slightly better 35% T-meter.  None of those are impressive numbers and they will not mean much revenue for Greg or Chris, the respective owners.

In repeat business, X-Men: Apocalypse continued to slow down, taking in only $9.9 million.  It has dropped over 55% in each of its weekends following it opening.  Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2: Out of the Shadows looks like it will make about half of what the first movie’s $191 million take.  Me Before You continues to make modest earnings, and if Chris had held onto it, it would have netted him $20.9 million to this point.  I think it is safe to say that he made a mistake in dropping it and would have been better off dropping Demolition or even Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping.

Preview:

This weekend should be one of the biggest weekends of the summer as Pixar releases Finding Dory 2, which has gotten very positive reviews and should do very big business this weekend.  I thought it was a little curious last week that there were no early reviews for it, but the reviews that have come out now have put to rest any doubts and concerns that it may not be up to the usual Pixar standard.  It is at 92% after On the flip side of that, it is now Wednesday and there are still no reviews for the other notable release this weekend, Central Intelligence.  This does not surprise me.  I think this is a movie that falls into the “3 true outcomes” category: it could be secretly good and end up in the high 60s or low 70s for a T-meter.  It could be mixed in the 45-55% range, or it could be a real clunker in the 20-35% range.  It’s almost never a good sign that there are no reviews this close to a movie’s release.  If a movie is not screened in advance for critics, it’s because the studio expects generally negative reviews.  However, there are always a handful of exceptions.  Unfortunately, I suspect it will be one of the latter outcomes of 45-55% or 20-35%.

Standings:

1. Joe – $392.2 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $89.2 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $250 million
($11) Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising – $32.9 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.4 million
($3) Keanu – $15.7 million
($3) Sausage Party – $0

2. Chris – $260.1 million
($46) Captain America: Civil War – $250 million
($4) Now You See Me 2 – $7.8 million
($2) Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping – $6.3 million
($1) Demolition – $1 million
($0) Bad Moms – -5 million
($10) Central Intelligence
($6) Pete’s Dragon

3. Me – $174.1 million
($29) X-Men: Apocalypse – $65.4 million
($10) Alice Through the Looking Glass – $18.1 million
($7) The Angry Birds Movie – $41.2 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut – $49.4 million
($8) Ice Age: Collision Course – $0
($12) The BFG – $0
($1) Free State of Jones – $0

4. Paula – $73.1 million
($7) The Huntsman: Winter’s War – $7.7 million
($5) The Boss – $13.9 million
($4) The Nice Guys – $29.6 million
($1) Money Monster – $21.9 million
($39) Finding Dory – $0
($5) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – $0
($5) Legend of Tarzan – $0

5.Tim – $63 million
($7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $20.6 million
($6) The Conjuring 2 – $30.7 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $17.3 million
($2) Mother’s Day – $2.3 million
($26) Suicide Squad – $0
($20) Star Trek Beyond – $0
($3) Kubo and the Two Strings – $0

6. Greg – $6.3 million
($6) Warcraft – $6.3 million
($8) Ghostbusters – $0
($17) Independence Day: Resurgence – $0
($19) The Secret Life of Pets – $0
($17) Jason Bourne – $0
($3) The Purge: Election Day – $0

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