Summer Movie League: Week 19

Recap:

This past weekend had Matt Damon reprising his role as Jason Bourne in  the 5th film in the franchise, Jason Bourne.  Based on the reviews, Bourne might have been better off staying in the shadows than resurfacing, as the reviews have been nowhere near a glowing as the previous three Bourne films that featured Damon.  It has managed a rating of only 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. For box office receipts, it made $59.2 million over the weekend, toping the box office charts.  That number is $10 million less than the domestic opening of The Bourne Ultimatum and 7 million more than The Bourne Supremacy.  Both of those films had suitable legs at the box office, grossing $227 and $176 million respectively, which is about 3.3x their opening weekend.

If that performance bears out for Jason Bourne, which is possible though probably not likely given the mixed reviews, that would make a domestic gross in the $195 range, which would mean about $111 in revenue for Greg.  That could push him as high as $550 million in revenue if Ghostbusters hits $100 million (I think  for him and The Secret Life of Pets hits the cap, both of which are within reach for him.  As anticipated last week, Greg catapulted himself to the top of the standings with the performance of Bourne, Pets, and Ghostbusters.

Also releasing this weekend was Bad Moms, which garnered $23.8 million at the box office and 63% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes.  That would be good for $15 million, but given the $5 million penalty that Chris paid in order to add it to his roster, it only made him $10 million this weekend.  I think it will end up making somewhere close to what Me Without You would have made, with a good chance that it doesn’t end up being a worthwhile move.

In its 2nd weekend, Star Trek Beyond dipped sharply, down 58% from its opening weekend.  That is not good news for Tim, who needs it to have some sustained box office revenue in order to have a shot at catching Greg (more on this in the Preview section).  Not that it would have mattered, but if I had simply dropped Ice Age: Collision Course for Lights Out, that would have made my final numbers a little more respectable.  Though, given how poorly all of my other films performed outside of Barbershop: The Next Cut, it would have been little more than putting lipstick on a pig.

Preview:

Opening this weekend is perhaps the biggest question mark of the summer, Suicide Squad.  It seems like there is a lot of anticipation for this one, and it also seems like there is a lot riding on it for Warner Bros. after the poor reviews for Batman V Superman.  The world premiere was Monday night, and as of writing this, no reviews are yet up on Rotten Tomatoes.  Regardless of the reviews, the anticipation seems high enough that estimates for its opening weekend should be well north of $100 million (Fantasy Movie League, for instance has split it up into 3 days in its game, something they only do for the biggest blockbusters).  As the last big anticipated blockbuster of the summer, $125 million seems within reach.  Could positive reviews push it closer to $150 million?

Beyond this coming weekend, early reviews are trickling out for Pete’s Dragon.  Through 16 reviews, its sits at 81% positive, with some heaping praise on it for being a pleasant surprise.  That could be good news for Chris as it is his last gasp at having a chance of winning.  If it were to outperform expectation based on good word of mouth and draw in the child audience that, say, The BFG failed and Greg and Tim had their remaining box office revenues sag a little, perhaps Chris could finds himself with a shot at it.

And that leads to the biggest question remaining in our league now of whether anyone can catch Greg?  Chris may have a long, outside shot with Pete’s Dragon, and Joe still has Sausage Party sitting at 100% on 8 reviews, but looking at the remaining releases, Tim seems to be the only one with a logical chance at it with two rounds still in his chamber, including his biggest in Suicide SquadKubo and the Two Strings is a complete wild card.  I have no clue how that will perform at the box office.  If Star Trek can reach $150 million domestically, that would net Tim $125 million.  And if Suicide Squad caps at $250 million then he is sitting around $500 million with Kubo giving him whatever it’s got.

Greg needs to get $42 million more out of The Secret Life of Pets for it to hit the cap, which is pretty likely.  While I said that $111 could end up being the final revenue for Bourne, I think that is the best scenario for it.  This Bourne film doesn’t seem to have quite the same level of anticipation that the other three Damon-led films had.  And Ghostbusters will dip into the single digits in box office this coming weekend.  The weekday revenue will help and it should be close to $120 million after next weekend, so ending up at $130-$140 is perfectly reasonable for it, which would translate into $94.9-$102.2 million for Greg in the end.  If it came in on the low end of that projection, and if Bourne also makes him, say, $95 million, and maybe Pets stalls out at $240 instead of hitting $250, then Greg is sitting around $520.

Does Kubo have $20 million for Tim?  Perhaps a better question is if Tim wants to gamble on another movie having more than $25 million (or more) in it and does he have the guts to drop Kubo, take the $5 million hit, and hope that another film out there can put him over the top?  Does that film even exist?  Will he regret not dropping Kubo earlier for The Shallows ($54.1 million in box office, $36.1 in potential revenue after the $5 million penalty), Me Before You ($56 million in box office, $27.5 million with the penalty), or Lights Out ($42 million and counting at the box office, $28 million with the penalty)?  Would he have been better off dropping Mother’s Day for any of those films at any point even earlier in the season (The answer to that is undoubtedly yes.)?  That’s part of what makes this league so much fun, the unknown variables.

Standings:

1. Greg – $419.3 million
($19) The Secret Life of Pets – $219.7 million
($17) Jason Bourne – 33.7 million
($17) Independence Day: Resurgence – $32.6 million
($8) Ghostbusters – $77.7 million
($6) Warcraft – $13.3 million
($3) The Purge: Election Year – $42.3 million

2. Joe – $393.7 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $89.2 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $250 million
($11) Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising – $34.3 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.4 million
($3) Keanu – $15.8 million
($3) Sausage Party – $0

3. Paula – $387.8 million
($39) Finding Dory – $250 million
($7) The Huntsman: Winter’s War – $7.7 million
($5) The Legend of Tarzan – $42.7 million
($5) The Boss – $13.9 million
($5) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – $17.2 million
($4) The Nice Guys – $32.9 million
($1) Money Monster – $23.4 million

4. Chris – $374.6 million
($46) Captain America: Civil War – $250 million
($10) Central Intelligence – $85.2 million
($4) Now You See Me 2 – $21.3 million
($2) Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping – $7.1 million
($1) Demolition – $1 million
($0) Bad Moms – $10 million
($6) Pete’s Dragon – $0

5. Me – $244.7 million
($29) X-Men: Apocalypse – $74.5 million
($12) The BFG – $38.6 million
($10) Alice Through the Looking Glass – $23 million
($8) Ice Age: Collision Course – $5.1 million
($7) The Angry Birds Movie – $46 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut – $48.6 million
($1) Free State of Jones – $8.9 million

6.Tim – $220.6 million
($20) Star Trek Beyond – $88.4 million
($7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $30.9 million
($6) The Conjuring 2 – $81.7 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $17.3 million
($2) Mother’s Day – $2.3 million
($26) Suicide Squad – $0
($3) Kubo and the Two Strings – $0

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