Summer Movie League: Week 20

Recap:

August has a new champion in the form of Suicide Squad, which broke the previous August opening weekend record of Guardians of the Galaxy to take in $135.1 million this weekend.  That is right around or slightly higher than projections.  Unfortunately for Tim, the reviews were as bad as those for Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice, coming in at 26% on the T-meter.  Thus, Tim only banks $35.1 million of that number.  Barring a miracle in the for of Kubo and the Two Strings, that T-meter performance completely sinks Tim’s chances to win this summer.  He does move up into 5th place, passing me, though it now remains to be seen if he will climb any higher, as he is currently still $113 million behind 4th place Paula.  Is there $113 million left to be had between Suicide Squad, Star Trek Beyond, and Kubo?

This gives Greg a bit more breathing room and narrows the field considerably.  The Secret Life of Pets continues to inch close to the $250 million cap.  It could do that as early as next weekend, but by the week after at the latest.  The arrival of Suicide Squad slowed the box office of Jason Bourne considerably.  Bourne experienced a 61% drop from its opening weekend.  That is usually a bad sign in terms of sustainability.  The drop in week 3 should not be as steep, and Greg has made $58.9 million off of it so far, but $100 million seems to be in jeopardy. With Pets, Bourne, and Ghostbusters still doing steady business, it seems like Greg should earn another $30-50 million by the end of this.

Preview:

At this point it seems like the race is really for 2nd place, with Joe and Chris neck and neck behind Greg.  They both have their last films releasing this coming weekend.  Joe with the long anticipated Sausage Party, which still sits at 100%, and Chris with Pete’s Dragon, which has an 83% rating through 23 reviews.  Chris continues to make good money off of Bad Moms, which now looks like it will officially be a worthwhile investment for him.

It would seem that with Bad Moms and Pete’s Dragon, Chris has the inside track for 2nd place.  If Bourne does have another steep decline, and Pete’s Dragon ends up being a pleasant surprise and a modest hit, he could conceivably push Greg for the top spot.  At this rate, Bad Moms looks like it could net Chris about $40 million or slightly more.  He would need to gets upwards of $100 million out of Pete’s DragonBoxoffice.com has a long range forecast projection of $117 million for Pete’s Dragon with a $33 million opening weekend.  Perhaps the positive reviews push it up a bit higher, although that $133 million would net Chris $97.1.  Add another $13 million from Bad Moms and Chris is now in the $500 million range, which would have to be considered the absolute floor for Greg given that he’s getting another $11 million from Pets to push him to $484.  And he should easily get $16 million more between Bourne and Ghostbusters.  The question is how much more?

Standings:

1. Greg – $472.1 million
($19) The Secret Life of Pets – $239.7 million
($17) Jason Bourne – $58.9 million
($17) Independence Day: Resurgence – $32.7 million
($8) Ghostbusters – $85.2 million
($6) Warcraft – $13.3 million
($3) The Purge: Election Year – $42.3 million

2. Joe – $393.7 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $89.2 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $250 million
($11) Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising – $34.3 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.4 million
($3) Keanu – $15.8 million
($3) Sausage Party – $0

3. Chris – $391.9 million
($46) Captain America: Civil War – $250 million
($10) Central Intelligence – $85.2 million
($4) Now You See Me 2 – $21.4 million
($2) Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping – $7.1 million
($1) Demolition – $1 million
($0) Bad Moms – $27.2 million
($6) Pete’s Dragon – $0

4. Paula – $387.8 million
($39) Finding Dory – $250 million
($7) The Huntsman: Winter’s War – $7.7 million
($5) The Legend of Tarzan – $42.7 million
($5) The Boss – $13.9 million
($5) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – $17.2 million
($4) The Nice Guys – $32.9 million
($1) Money Monster – $23.4 million

5.Tim – $274.8 million
($26) Suicide Squad – $35.1 million
($20) Star Trek Beyond – $107.4 million
($7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $31 million
($6) The Conjuring 2 – $81.7 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $17.3 million
($2) Mother’s Day – $2.3 million
($3) Kubo and the Two Strings – $0

6. Me – $246.5 million
($29) X-Men: Apocalypse – $74.5 million
($12) The BFG – $39.1 million
($10) Alice Through the Looking Glass – $23 million
($8) Ice Age: Collision Course – $6.4 million
($7) The Angry Birds Movie – $46 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut – $48.6 million
($1) Free State of Jones – $8.9 million

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