Summer Movie League: Week 21

Recap:

The next to last week of scheduled releases for the summer season in our league featured Sausage Party and Pete’s Dragon as new releases that many industry analysts though would end up competing for 2nd place behind Suicide Squad‘s 2nd weekend.  Suicide Squad did top the box office for the 2nd weekend in a row, despite a staggering 67% drop in its 2nd weekend to $43.5 million.  That pushed its box office total to $222 million, but the 27% number severely hampers Tim’s ability to make any hay with that number, which nets him only $60.1 million.  It will probably come in somewhere around $75-80 million, which will be about $10 less in revenue than Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice made to similarly bad reviews.

The race for 2nd place, to put it frank (pun intended), was not close, as Sausage Party outperformed expectations to the tune of $34.3 million while Pete’s Dragon managed $21.5 million.  Both films were favorably reviewed, at 82% and 86% respectively.  That nets Joe $28.1 million from Sausage Party while Chris gains $18.5 million for Pete’s Dragon.  Coupled with the continued revenue of Bad Moms, Chris momentarily leapfrogs Joe in the standings to assume 2nd place.  Given that Bad Moms appears to have some legs, only dropping 19% from last weekend, Chris has just as good of a chance to end up 2nd as Joe, despite Sausage Party‘s likelihood to outperform Pete’s Dragon.

Despite his protestations, likely stemming from pure superstition, Greg has all but wrapped this summer up.  The Secret Life of Pets will have capped by next weekend, Jason Bourne is still doing steady business, and he’ll see a few more million from Ghostbusters before it’s all said and done.  His floor at this point appears to be $508 million.  I just can’t imagine Chris or Joe have enough left in the tank to generate $90 million more in revenue from their rosters.  Sausage Party would have to end up being a film that make $144 million to make the money necessary for Joe to get there.  As for Chris, I expect Pete’s Dragon will perform at a similar box office pattern to The BFG, though with a slightly higher final number overall.  Even with the sustained performance of Bad Moms I just don’t see it being enough.

Preview:

The final, unreleased film belongs to Tim in the form of Kubo and the Two Strings, an stop motion animation from the studio that made Coraline.  It has received very favorable reviews, currently sitting at 91% after 33 reviews.  I expect a modest opening weekend somewhere in the low-to-mid teens for it.  Coraline was a film that opened to nearly $17 million on its way to $75 total domestic.  That was released in February, so it could be tough to compare, but late August is a similarly dry period to February, so it’s possible it could perform similarly.  Though I suspect that, coupled with Suicide Squad, it won’t be enough for Tim to overtake Paula.

Next week will be the final Summer Movie League post of the season until the end of September when the final standings are sorted out.  That will coincide with the Fall/Winter League kicking off in late September that will run through the end of the year.

Standings:

1. Greg – $498.8 million
($19) The Secret Life of Pets – $248.8 million
($17) Jason Bourne – $72.4 million
($17) Independence Day: Resurgence – $32.8 million
($8) Ghostbusters – $88.8 million
($6) Warcraft – $13.3 million
($3) The Purge: Election Year – $42.7 million

2. Chris – $424.1 million
($46) Captain America: Civil War – $250 million
($10) Central Intelligence – $86.2 million
($6) Pete’s Dragon – $18.5 million
($4) Now You See Me 2 – $22 million
($2) Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping – $7.1 million
($1) Demolition – $1 million
($0) Bad Moms – $39.3 million

3. Joe – $421.8 million
($30) Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $89.2 million
($19) The Jungle Book – $250 million
($11) Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising – $34.3 million
($4) Hardcore Henry – $4.4 million
($3) Keanu – $15.8 million
($3) Sausage Party – $28.1 million

4. Paula – $389.7 million
($39) Finding Dory – $250 million
($7) The Huntsman: Winter’s War – $7.7 million
($5) The Legend of Tarzan – $45 million
($5) The Boss – $13.9 million
($5) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – $16.8 million
($4) The Nice Guys – $32.9 million
($1) Money Monster – $23.4 million

5.Tim – $310.1 million
($26) Suicide Squad – $60.1 million
($20) Star Trek Beyond – $117.4 million
($7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $31.1 million
($6) The Conjuring 2 – $81.9 million
($4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $17.3 million
($2) Mother’s Day – $2.3 million
($3) Kubo and the Two Strings – $0

6. Me – $247.7 million
($29) X-Men: Apocalypse – $74.5 million
($12) The BFG – $40 million
($10) Alice Through the Looking Glass – $23.1 million
($8) Ice Age: Collision Course – $6.5 million
($7) The Angry Birds Movie – $46.1 million
($3) Barbershop: The Next Cut – $48.6 million
($1) Free State of Jones – $8.9 million

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