Fall Movie League: Week 1

Recap:

Week One of the Fall Movie League has arrived.  I can’t say, “with a bang,” because September has been pretty mediocre overall, but the opening week of our fall season did feature two openings this weekend.  Like in the summer, Joe is first out the gate with The Magnificent Seven, a remake of a western that was a remake of a samurai film.  It opened to a pretty modest $35 million, which I think is a little lower than some estimates had it.  I think initial hopes were for something closer to $50 million, or at least over $40 million.  This is right in line with the more realistic projections forecasters had for it.  It also received favorable overall reviews on Rotten Tomatoes; through 197 reviews it is sitting at 62%.  That gives Joe $21.7 million in revenue.  According to Deadline.com, expectations are for it to make 3x its opening weekend numbers over the course of its run, which would top the movie out at $105 million, and if the Tomatometer holds, $65.1 million for Joe.

The second release of the weekend was the animated film Storks.  With a 64% T-meter based on 74 reviews, it made $21.8 million this weekend, generating $14 million in revenue for Paula.  This is definitely lower than expectations, which were around the $30 million mark.  However, Deadline projects a 3.6x multiplier for it, which would mean a box office total of $78.5 million, which would be $50.2 million in the end for Paula.  That’s very good for a $7 movie in the Fall.

Preview:

Opening next weekend are Deepwater Horizon, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, and Masterminds.  Of these three movies, only Deepwater Horizon has early reviews, 25, and currently has a T-meter rating of 84%.  Miss Peregrine’s is a Tim Burton film based on a popular book a few years ago.  Masterminds is a comedy featuring Zach Galiafinakis, Kristen Wiig, Jason Sudekis, Kate McKinnon, and Owen Wilson and is directed by the creator of Napoleon Dynamite.  It has also been pushed back twice from its original August release date.  I don’t have high hope for either, though I would expect Miss Peregrine’s to have the better opening and overall box office performance.  It’s T-meter will depend on what kind of Tim Burton movie it is.

October features the release of Birth of a Nation, The Girl on the Train, The Accountant, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Keeping Up With the Joneses, Ouija: Origin of Evil, and InfernoBirth of a Nation is the only one with advanced reviews, with an 84% T-meter.

Standings:

1. Joe – $21.7 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (62% X $35.0 = $21.7)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (100%)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)
$3 Collateral Beauty (12/16)

2. Paula – $14 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (64% X $21.8 = $14.0)
$9 The Accountant (10/14)
$10 Inferno (10/28)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (90%)
$2 Rings (2/17/17) It was announced that Rings was pushed back. Paula will get a free add/drop to replace it.

3. Greg – $0
$15 Trolls (11/4)
$2 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (11/11)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (74%)
$1 Gold (12/30)

4. Chris – $0
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (84%)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

5.Tim – $0
$1 Masterminds (9/30)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21)
$37 Moana (11/25)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

6. Me – $0
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (84%)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (93%)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

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