Fall Movie League: Week 2

Recap:

This past weekend featured the release of no less than three movies, two of which had decent openings while the other released without much notice.  Tim Burton’s latest, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children topped the box office with $28.9 million in sales.  It’s a bit lower than initial estimates were, but given that Joe only paid $5 for it, it seems like it is going to be a good investment for him.  It earned a 64% T-meter, netting Joe $18.5 million in its opening weekend.

In second place this weekend was the first of two Peter Berg-Mark Wahlberg collaborations scheduled for release this year, Deepwater Horizon.  It came in at $20.2 million, but received more favorable reviews than Miss Peregrine, taking in a modest $16.8 million on an 83% T-meter.  At $3 this is certainly going to be a worthwhile investment for Chris.

Far less worthwhile, in more ways than one, is Masterminds.  The long-delayed comedy opened to a soft $6.5 million, with a 36% T-meter, giving Tim only $2.3  million.  With that T-meter, it will need to make almost $28 just to generate $10 in revenue for Tim.  Looking at his roster, it’s pretty safe bet that this is the worst performing movie on his roster (depending on how Why Him? performs).  That’s good news and bad news, as it’s the likely floor for any movie he has, but it’s one less arrow in his quiver for a shot at the top.

In their second week of releases, The Magnificent Seven and Storks both ended up in the mid-teens.  The $15.6 million for The Magnificent Seven represents a 55% drop from it’s opening, which is not great, but not disastrous either.  At $13.5, Storks sustained its audience far better, dropping only 37% in its second frame.

In other news, Joe announced this week that he was dropping Collateral Beauty for the Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard WWII drama Allied.  Since nobody else was interested in a bidding war for it and Joe had $10 leftover from the auction, he was able to pick up Allied for $5 of that $10 with no penalty.

Preview:

The openings this weekend belong to me. I’ve got The Girl on the Train and The Birth of a Nation opening.  Early reviews of The Girl on the Train have been mixed, with a 53% T-meter through 53 reviews.  Birth of a Nation is holding steady in the lows 80s, currently at 83% on 64 reviews.  Industry projections have Girl slated for somewhere in the mid-$20 million range.  My hope in acquiring it was that it would have a run like Gone Girl, even if it didn’t quite hit the same box office total as Gone Girl, but that seems out the window due to the mixed reviews.  As for The Birth of a Nation, projections are for a $7-9 million opening weekend.  That is also slightly lower than I anticipated.  It is encouraging that the initial screen launch has jumped to 2,100 based on demand from the exhibitors, up from the studio’s original plan of 1,500.  Unfortunately, the buzz around this movie has taken a significant turn since the early press it received at Sundance.  There is still the possibility it could have some legs if it gets some awards buzz.  Also, looming over everything this weekend is Hurricane Matthew, which will likely cause a dip in some box office numbers as it hits the Southern coast this weekend.

Standings:

1. Joe – $57.2 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (62%$65.1 = $38.7)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (64% X $28.9 = $18.5)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (100%)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)
$5 Allied (11/23)

2. Paula – $23.9 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (62% X $38.5 = $23.9)
$9 The Accountant (10/14)
$10 Inferno (10/28)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (90%)
$2 Rings (2/17/17) It was announced that Rings was pushed back. Paula will get a free add/drop to replace it.

3. Chris – $16.8 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (83% X $20.2 = $16.8)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

4.Tim – $2.3 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (36%$6.5 = $2.3)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21)
$37 Moana (11/25)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

5. Greg – $0
$15 Trolls (11/4)
$2 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (11/11)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (74%)
$1 Gold (12/30)

6. Me – $0
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (83%)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) (53%)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (93%)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

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