Fall Movie League: Week 3


This past weekend was my foray into the fall season with two movies releasing, neither of which lived up to pre-draft expectations.  The Girl on the Train faltered with critics and with audiences.  It took in only $24.5 million over the three days and garnered a paltry 43% T-meter.  That is an uninspiring $10.5 million in the bank for me.  I saw the movie Tuesday and was shocked at how it felt like a glorified Lifetime movie.  That is not at all good for its long-term prospects.  There is no way it is going to be a good investment on my part.  I will be lucky to see $30 million in revenue from its box office receipts.

Coupled with The Girl on the Train was the release of The Birth of a Nation, a film that wowed critics at the beginning of the year at Sundance and welcomed controversy with a title that invoked the much-maligned 1915 silent film by D.W. Griffith that depicts the Klan as heroes.  Unfortunately, the film became consumed by another controversy late in the summer as the writer/director/actor Nate Parker was revealed to have been involved in a rape case 15 years ago while in college.  Despite many months of positive word of mouth surrounding the film, the way that Parker handled the press scrutiny of his past seems to have submarined the box office and awards season chances of this film.  It only made $7 million in its opening weekend, and the reviews dropped down to 77% on Rotten Tomatoes, resulting in $5.4 million in revenue for me.  It’s unlikely to have much positive word of mouth considering the torn sentiment of people who have seen it and the difficulty they have separating the art from the art maker in this case.

In repeat business, The Magnificent Seven upped it’s box office total to just over $75 million.  Storks climbed over the $50 million plateau.  In their second weekends, none of last weekend’s major released had staggering drops.  Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children dipped 47% to $15 million.  Deepwater Horizon was 43% off its opening number with $11.5 million, and Masterminds dropped 38% to $4.4 million.  Their total can be found below.  Of these films, it looks like Miss Peregrine’s, Storks, and Deepwater Horizon are turning out to be good to very good buys.  Storks was much maligned during the auction, so Paula can rub everyone else’s noses in that.


There is only one film on the docket for this weekend, the Ben Affleck-led crime drama The Accountant.  I don’t think anyone of us expected the reviews to be particularly kind as the trailers for this film did not look promising.  So far, critics do not seem too keen on it, with a T-meter of 29% after 24 reviews.  Doesn’t look like it will be much of a money maker for Paula.

In the extended forecast, a few more movies have ad some early reviews pop up.  In some more news tied to Paula’s roster,  Inferno has a 25% T-meter through 16 reviews.  Edge of Seventeen has bumped up a bit to 91%.  The shape of Greg’s supplemental roster to Rogue One come ever so slightly more into focus, with seven reviews out for Trolls and a 57% T-meter to show for it.  Meanwhile,  A Monster Calls has risen from 74% to 80%.


1. Joe – $80.6 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$75.8 = $47.8)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (64% X $51.2 = $32.8)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (100%)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)
$5 Allied (11/23)

2. Chris – $31.8 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (83% X $38.3 = $31.8)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

3. Paula – $30.5 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (61% X $50 = $30.5)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (29%)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (25%)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (91%)
$2 Rings (2/17/17) It was announced that Rings was pushed back. Paula will get a free add/drop to replace it.

4. Me – $15.9 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (77% X $7 = $5.4)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) (43% X $24.5 = $10.5)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (93%)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

5.Tim – $4.4 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (34%$12.8 = $4.4)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21)
$37 Moana (11/25)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

6. Greg – $0
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (57%)
$2 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (11/11)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (80%)
$1 Gold (12/30)

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