Fall Movie League: Week 4

Recap:

Tops at the box office this weekend was Ben Affleck’s The Accountant, a movie about an autistic assassin who does people’s taxes.  Yup, that’s the thing that it is.  It earned $24.7 million to take the #1 spot, but it received less than favorable reviews, coming in with a 49% T-meter rating.  That translates into $12.1 million in revenue for Paula, which is enough to push her ahead of Chris for 2nd place for now.  It was the lone new release this weekend that was rostered in the league.

In repeat business, The Girl on the Train dropped 50% to $12.2 million.  The Birth of a Nation tumbled 60% to $2.7 million.  Neither of these is going to perform anywhere near where I hoped or expected it to, which means I’m much more reliant upon my remaining four movies than I wanted to be.  I need Passengers to perform like a Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt blockbuster.  I need people to be ready to forgive Mel Gibson again and go to the box office for his movie.  I need La La Land to catch fire because it is an Oscar Best Picture contender.  And I need Patriots Day to be the uber-patriotic movie that follows in the shoes of Lone Survivor and American Sniper.

The Magnificent Seven and Miss Peregrine’s continue to push up their final numbers.  Seven will probably end up around $100-110.  Miss Peregrine’s will probably end up around $100 million.  For Paula, it looks like Storks ($7) is going to end up being a better investment than The Accountant ($9) for her.  Deepwater Horizon has already paid off for Chris, but because he has fewer movies than everyone else, he needs to have it perform well.

Preview:

This weekend features three movies opening: Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Keeping Up with the Jonses, and Ouija: Origin of Evil.  Surprisingly, Ouija: Origin of Evil is receiving the most positive reviews, with a 91% rating through 23 reviews.  Meanwhile, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back is at 43% after 30 reviews while Keeping Up with the Joneses is, well, struggling to keep up at 17% after 12 reviews.  Tim owns both Ouija and Keeping Up with the Joneses, so it looks like the performance of the former could offset the performance of the latter and end up being a net positive for Tim overall.  He still needs Moana and Sing to make big money.

There have been a surprising number of movies that have early reviews this season, with a new one springing out in the past week.  Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk had 17 reviews come out, decidedly mixed, at 47% on the T-meter.  That could cause a little worry for Greg, however, he can breathe a little easier because a few more reviews trickled in for Trolls and that jumped from 55% last week to 77% now after 13 reviews.  Inferno also had some more reviews come in and it continued to sink, now at 22% through 53 reviews.

Standings:

1. Joe – $96.3 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$84.9 = $53.5)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (65% X $65.9 = $42.8)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (43%) (30 reviews)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (100%) (46 reviews)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)
$5 Allied (11/23)

2. Paula – $50 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (64% X $59.2 = $37.9)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (49% X $24.7 = $12.1)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (22%) (53 reviews)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (92%) (12 reviews)

3. Chris – $41 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (83% X $49.4 = $41)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

4. Me – $29.9 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (76% X $12.3 = $9.3)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) (44% X $46.8 = $20.6)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (93%) (15 reviews)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%) (47 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

5.Tim – $5.5 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (34%$16.2 = $5.5)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (17%) (12 reviews)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (91%) (23 reviews)
$37 Moana (11/25)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%) (9 reviews)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

6. Greg – $0
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (77%) (13 reviews)
$2 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (11/11) (47%) (17 reviews)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (82%) (44 reviews)
$1 Gold (12/30)

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