Fall Movie League: Week 5

Recap:

Week 5 did not have much to write home about, even though it featured three releases.  All three of the releases failed to reach the top of the box office, as Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween topped the box office this weekend.  That movie was not on anyone’s roster, though with the 26% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, it was hardly worth owning despite being #1 this weekend.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back was the #2 movie of the weekend, taking in an unspectacular $22.9 million with an equally unspectacular 39% T-meter.  That is $8.9 million in revenue for Joe, who remains in 1st place but based on his remaining roster, I do not see much hope for victory.  Arrival is likely to be his highest earning remaining movie, and that could top out at less than $100 million.  If things break poorly, he could be in a fight for last place.

The other two releases this weekend were owned by Tim.  Ouija: Origin of Evil generated $11.3 million for Tim basedon a $14.1 million weekend and a T-meter of 80%.  That kind of performance already has made it more than a worthwhile $1 investment for Tim, and if it has some steady box office performance due to the Halloween season, it could definitely help offset the meager earnings of Keeping Up With the Joneses, which took in $5.5 million but only had a 19% T-meter and $1 million in revenue for Tim.  His “stars and scrubs” auction strategy was a calculated risk and a good play, but I think with 4 “scrubs” like that you’re hoping one or two of them pops and seriously outperforms expectations.  Ouija will outperform expectations, but I don’t think it will be to the degree where it results in anything other than a break-even result unless Why Him is also a sleeper hit in the holiday season.  If Moana and Sing put up big numbers though, break-even could be enough for Tim to win.

Preview:

There is only one release this weekend, the third Robert Langdon movie Inferno, directed by Ron Howard and starring Tom Hanks.  It’s already got 71 reviews and only has a T-meter of 27%, which is up slightly from the 22% it had at this point last week.  I have not seen any box office estimates yet, but if I had to guess I would think it would open somewhere in the $30-35 million range.  Angels & Demons, which came out seven years ago, had a $46 million opening weekend, which was down from the $77 million weekend that The Da Vinci Code had in 2006.  Both of those movies were released in May, and I have a hard time expecting that an October release for a poorly reviewed sequel will do better seven years after the last release.

On the longer ranger front, reviews have come out for Marvel’s Doctor Strange and they are very positive.  It sits at 98% with 43 reviews out already, which is great news for Paula.  Trolls continues to climb higher, with 32 in it has a 88% T-meter.  Elsewhere, not much else has changed.  A few more reviews have trickled in for some of the other movies that already had reviews, but they only further cemented the T-meter already had.

Standings:

1. Joe – $112.6 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$89 = $56.1)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (65% X $74.3 = $47.6)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (39% X $22.9 = $8.9)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (100%) (48 reviews)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)
$5 Allied (11/23)

2. Paula – $65.1 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (64% X $64.6 = $41.3)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (49% X $47.5 = $23.8)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (27%) (71 reviews)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (98%) (43 reviews)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (92%) (13 reviews)

3. Chris – $45.7 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (83% X $55 = $45.7)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

4. Me – $36.4 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (74% X $14.2 = $10.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) (44% X $58.8 = $25.9)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (94%) (16 reviews)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%) (51 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

5.Tim – $17.9 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (33%$17.1 = $5.6)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (19% X $5.5 = $1)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (80% X $14.1 = $11.3)
$37 Moana (11/25)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%) (9 reviews)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

6. Greg – $0
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (88%) (32 reviews)
$2 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (11/11) (47%) (17 reviews)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (83%) (48 reviews)
$1 Gold (12/30)

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