Fall Movie League: Week 7

Recap:

(Sorry for the delay, everything kind of paused for the election on Tuesday.)

Well, Doctor Strange ended up being just what doctor ordered for the fall box office (Lame pun, achieved).  It stirred up $85.1 million over last weekend, easily claiming the #1 spot.  It was also very highly reviewed, scoring a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, which meant Paula received $76.6 million of that weekend revenue.  Given the positive reviews and the good word of mouth (my review is still pending, but it will be very favorable), Strange can expect to make some good dough over the next few weeks.  If it doesn’t cap it should at least come close, which is very good news for Paula.  It was also enough to propel her into first place, jumping ahead of Joe by over $30 million.

The other two releases, Trolls ($46.6 million) and Hacksaw Ridge ($15.2 million) finished 2nd and 3rd on the weekend.  Trolls exceeded expectations for its opening weekend, which is great news for Greg.  Its T-meter didn’t quite fare as well as was anticipated based on where early reviews stood in the mid-80s, but it ended up at 73%, which is certainly a number that you can live with.  It netted Greg $34 million.  Hacksaw Ridge also slightly exceeded expectations, a few million over the $12-13 million some had predicted.  To be honest, I was hoping for something closer to $20 million, but this is right in line with Gibson’s Apocalypto opening, and it’s possible that this will have more mass appeal and have some better legs at the box office.  Estimates for its second weekend are pretty strong as well.

Preview:

There is only one major release this weekend, and that is Arrival, the latest film from Denis Villeneuve.  He is one of my favorite directors right now, and I am eagerly awaiting this movie.  Reviews have been through the roof so far, with it taking until Wednesday this week for it to drop from 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.  It’s currently at 96% with 119 reviews.  Still, it’s only projected to do about $16-17 million in business this weekend.  That’s not a good sign for Joe, who needs it to take in around $100 million.  Joe could go this entire season without having a movie that makes $100 million in revenue.  After the summer experience I had, that’s a recipe for disaster.  After Arrival, all that is left in his bag is Allied and Collateral Beauty.  He has to hope for a hit on one of these three hits and that none of them are a box office dud.

A few early reviews have come in for Moana, the latest Disney animated feature.  It’s sitting pretty at 100% with 9 reviews so far.  Tim has to feel pretty good about its chances to cap, especially if the reviews are really high for it.

Standings:

1. Paula – $162 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (64% X $70 = $44.8)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (50% X $70.8 = $35.4)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (20% X $26 = $5.2)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (90% X $85.1 = $76.6)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (93%) (15 reviews)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15)

2. Joe – $130.1 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$92.2 = $58.1)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (64% X $83.3 = $53.3)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (38% X $49.1 = $18.7)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (96%) (119 reviews)
$5 Allied (11/23)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)

3. Me – $55.7 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (74% X $15.1 = $11.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) (44% X $70.6 = $31.1)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (86% X $15.2 = $13.1)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%) (53 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

4. Chris – $49.7 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (83% X $59.9 = $49.7)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

5.Tim – $33.8 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (31%$17.4 = $5.4)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (21% X $10.8 = $2.7)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $24.7 = $25.7)
$37 Moana (11/25) (100%) (9 reviews)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%) (9 reviews)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

6. Greg – $29 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (73% X $46.6 = $34)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (84%) (49 reviews)
$0 Fences (12/25) (-$5 million penalty)
$1 Gold (12/30)

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