Fall Movie League: Week 8

Recap:

 Doctor Strange continued to dominate the box office in its 2nd weekend, topping all other movies with $43 million.  That pushes it up to $153 million after two weekends, and with a 90% T-meter, that is good for $137.7 million for Paula.  She has a very good chance for it to cap or come very close.  Paula has crafted a pretty solid roster, supplementing her blockbuster with some unspectacular but solid earners.  She’s going to get nearly $100 million combined out of Storks and The Accountant.  Could Edge of Seventeen and Collateral Beauty combine to bring her another $50 million or more?  It’s entirely possible that she is looking at a take over $350 million, which could be enough to win it all.

Trolls also continued strong in its second weekend, taking in another $35 million and upping its total to $93.9 million, which translates to $69.5 million for Greg based on the 74% T-meter score.  Boxoffice.com had pegged it for a domestic cumulative gross of $92 million, a number it has already exceeded in 2 weekends, which is no doubt very good news for Greg.

Debuting in the #3 spot was this week’s lone release, Arrival.  It outperformed estimates heading into the weekend, but came in below the boxoffice.com projections with $24 million.  It received rave reviews (I’m working on my own rave review, as well), clocking in at 93% on the T-meter.  That gives Joe a solid $22.4 million in revenue.  Deadline.com predicts a 2.9x multiple of its opening weekend based on its CinemaScore, which would put its final tally at $69.6 million, but says it could easily exceed that.  I think $80 million is a safe estimate, which would give Joe nearly $75 million.  Combined with The Magnificent Seven, Miss Peregrine, and Jack Reacher, that would push Joe over $200 million with his chances the rest of the way resting on the shoulders of Allied and Office Christmas Party.

Elsewhere, Almost Christmas opened with $15.1 million and a 48% on Rotten Tomatoes.  It’s not much, but it could be something of a missed opportunity for someone.  Certainly looks like it will make more than The Birth of a Nation made for me ($11.5 million) by the end of its run and probably could’ve been had for less than the $6 I spent on it, which could’ve been allocated elsewhere.  Hacksaw Ridge continued to perform modestly well.  Like Trolls, it should easily exceed the boxoffice.com projection for it ($37 million) as it is already at $32.1 million so far.  That’s $27.3 million for me, which is not quite what I was hoping for, but more than forecasts were expecting.  The fact that it only dropped 29% in its 2nd weekend is encouraging, but the 3rd weekend, away from the Veteran’s Day bump, will be more telling to see if it can have some longer legs.  At this point I’m hoping for something close to $50 million, but it might be closer to $40 million.

Preview:

This coming weekend is a busy one with five notable wide and limited releases: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Edge of Seventeen, Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals, and Bleed for This.  All of these are freshly reviewed so far.  Of those, only two are on rosters here: Fantastic Beasts and Edge of SeventeenFantastic Beasts is sporting an 83% on Rotten Tomatoes through 63 reviews while Edge of Seventeen is at 91% after 34 reviews.  Fantastic Beasts should easily be the #1 movie of the weekend.  Estimates have placed it in the $78-$100 million range.  Given that it is related to the Harry Potter series, I suspect it will be closer to the latter, but given that it is a spin-off, the former is a possibility.  Estimates for Edge of Seventeen are in the $8-$13 million range.

On the long-range front, Moana holds at 100% now with 14 reviews.  Bad Santa has now had 7 reviews come in, and only a 29% rating so far.  Other than that, no real significant movement on any of the other remaining releases.

Standings:

1. Paula – $228.5 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (63% X $70.8 = $44.6)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (51% X $77.6 = $39.6)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (21% X $31.6 = $6.6)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (90% X $153 = $137.7)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) (91%) (34 reviews)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15)

2. Joe – $155.1 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$92.6 = $58.3)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (63% X $85.2 = $53.7)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (38% X $54.6 = $20.7)
$12 Arrival (11/11) (93% X $24.1 = $22.4)
$5 Allied (11/23)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)

3. Me – $71.1 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) (73% X $15.8 = $11.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) (44% X $73.3 = $32.3)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) (85% X $32.1 = $27.3)
$8 La La Land (12/2) (96%) (56 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

4. Greg – $64.5 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (74% X $93.9 = $69.5)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/26) (29%) (7 reviews)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) (84%) (49 reviews)
$0 Fences (12/25) (-$5 million penalty)
$1 Gold (12/30)

5. Chris – $50.9 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) (84% X $60.6 = $50.9)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18) (83%) (63 reviews)
$2 The Founder (12/16)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

6.Tim – $36.6 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (32%$17.4 = $5.6)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (21% X $14.3 = $3)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $34.2 = $28)
$37 Moana (11/25) (100%) (14 reviews)
$19 Sing (12/21) (88%) (9 reviews)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

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