Fall Movie League: Week 10

Recap:

This past weekend was an extended holiday weekend at the box office due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  This resulted in a lot of strong numbers across the board, as a lot of previous releases did not see significant dips from their numbers from the previous weekend.  In fact, no movie in the top 10 dropped more than 39% from last weekend.  On top of that, they all essentially got 2 extra days of stronger mid-week box office numbers than usual, as most people have Wednesday before Thanksgiving off as well.  So for all intents and purposes, it was a five day weekend at the box office, and that extended period even elevated the three-day weekend numbers.

Topping the box office was the latest Disney hit, Moana, an animated feature that took in $82.1 million over the 5-day period, and $56 over the weekend.  It also received outstanding positive reviews, coming in with a 98% T-meter, which means that it will be a very lucrative film for Tim as he will keep nearly all of the earnings.  As far back as Tangled, Disney Animated Studios releases in November have all taken in at least $189 million, and obvious Frozen did significantly more than that.  Given that there are no significant releases between now and Dec. 16th when Rogue One hits (Office Christmas Party is the only big wide release on 12/9), Moana has plenty of time to make money, as do all of these other recent releases.  And given the 98% T-meter, it is almost sure to cap, or come very close.

The other two major releases this week, Allied and Bad Santa 2 came in 5th and 7th respectively.  Allied captured $17.7 million over the 5-day weekend, and with a 61% on Rotten Tomatoes, that was good for $10.8 million in revenue for Joe.  Bad Santa 2 fared far worse for Greg, as it only reached $9.1 million over the five days and was only able to muster a 24% on the T-meter, which was only $2.2 million in revenue.  Greg has a good chance to win, given that he has Rogue One, but he can probably put it away if A Monster Calls, Fences, or Hidden Figures finds an audience coming out of the holidays.

In repeat business, Fantastic Beasts performed very well in its 2nd weekend, keeping within shouting distance of Moana throughout the five days, coming in with $65.5 million over the five day frame and $45.1 million over the Friday-Saturday-Sunday period.  In fact, it managed to double its gross income from $74.4 million to $156 million by the end of its 2nd weekend, which is a needed shot in the arm for Chris.

Preview:

There are no significant releases coming this week.  The next release of a movie on anyone’s roster is on 12/9 with Office Christmas Party, which Joe owns, and La La Land, which I own.  La La Land has a limited release on 12/9 before going wide on 12/16.  There has been no advanced word on Office Christmas Party, though the previews make it look pretty funny.  La La Land has been receiving rave reviews, and is being mentioned as a Best Picture nominee for the Oscars.  I’m hoping that very positive word of mouth and a building award season portfolio will sustain its box office run and keep it in theaters for weeks and weeks and weeks until the end of January.  Unfortunately, Oscars nominations will not be revealed until January 24th, but the Golden Globes are presented on January 8th.  On a personal level, it’s very high on my must-see list, and I’m not a fan of musicals, generally speaking.  Still no reviews for Passengers, a movie I am really relying on at this point.  Patriots Day continues to hold strong, up to 92% now on 12 reviews.

Look at the roster that Chris has, he really needs every last dollar from Fantastic Beasts that he can scrounge up.  This strong 2nd weekend was to his benefit, but he will need every penny from its T-meter is holding steady at 75% and he only has Assassin’s Creed and The Founder left, and The Founder will not get a wide release until January 20th, which doesn’t leave it much time to make money for Chris.  He would need Fantastic Beasts to make $266 million to reach the cap.  That seems unlikely, though this 3rd weekend coming will be telling.  Given the track record of previous video game adaptations, I can’t forecast a strong T-meter for Assassin’s Creed.  I don’t question its ability to make money, given how popular the game franchise is, but video games just do not have a strong track record with critics.

Everyone now has one movie left on their roster that has no early reviews, and all of the movies that are left that do have early reviews have received positive reviews so far.  It should be a fun race to the finish.

Standings:

1. Paula – $291.2 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (63% X $71.2 = $44.9)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (51% X $83.2 = $42.4)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (20% X $33.8 = $6.8)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (91% X $201.8 = $187.3)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) – (95% X $10.3 = $9.8)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15)

2. Joe – $204.2 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$92.8 = $58.5)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (63% X $86.2 = $54.3)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (39% X $57.4 = $22.4)
$12 Arrival (11/11) – (93% X $62.6 = $58.2)
$5 Allied (11/23) – (61%$17.7 = $10.8)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9)

3. Chris – $168.3 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) – (84% X $61.1 = $51.3)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18) – (75% X $156 = $117)
$2 The Founder (12/16) – (85%) (13 reviews)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)

4.Tim – $117.4 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (31%$17.4 = $5.4)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (19% X $14.6 = $2.8)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $35 = $28.7)
$37 Moana (11/23) – (98% X $82.1 = $80.5)
$19 Sing (12/21) – (80%) (10 reviews)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

5. Greg – $93.8 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (74% X $135.4 = $101.6)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/23) – (24% X $9.1 = $2.2)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) – (84%) (49 reviews)
$0 Fences (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (82%) (11 reviews)
$0 Hidden Figures (12/25) – (-5 million penalty)

6. Me – $89.4 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) – (73% X $15.8 = $11.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) – (43% X $74.9 = $33)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) – (86% X $52.2 = $44.9)
$8 La La Land (12/9) – (97%) (60 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21) – (92%) (12 reviews)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

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