Fall Movie League: Week 11

Recap:

Week 11 of the Fall Movie League featured no new releases on the roster of movies for anyone.  Nobody owned Incarnate.  Heck, I didn’t even know Incarnate was a even a movie until a week before it released.  Apparently, most of the movie-going public was not aware of it either, as it only made $2.6 million and was ravaged by critics.

So the majority of the weekend was owned by repeat business.  Moana managed to maintain the top spot of the weekend, taking in an additional $28.3 million.  That’s a 50% drop from last weekend, and after the Thanksgiving holiday and two weekends, its total currently stands at $119.8 million, which is surprisingly low for a critically acclaimed Disney animated feature.  Almost from the beginning, it was never on the Frozen path of revenue.  It seems to be falling a similar path to 2010’s Tangled which ended up grossing just over $200 million.  I think there is a strong possibility that Moana falls a bit short of that, given that Rogue One: A Star Wars Story could suck up most of the oxygen in the cineplexes for a few weekends and there is another animated feature opening at Christmas in Sing.  It looks like Moana has an uphill climb to hitting the cap; I think somewhere in the $180 million range is more likely.

Also facing an uphill climb to the $200 million cap is Fantastic Beats.  Its total right now stands at $183 million, after having taken in $18 million over the weekend.  For Chris to have it reach the cap, it will need to hit $266 million in revenue, or another $83 million.  The $18 million from this weekend represented a nearly 60% drop from the previous weekend.  There is only one wide release this weekend, so this weekend could be telling if it takes another 50% tumble.

Two movies that are going strong and showing only modest drops in week-to-week revenue are Arrival and Hacksaw RidgeArrival now sits at $73 million after nearly a month in theaters.  Looking at its numbers, it’s also increased its theater count since its release by nearly 600 screens, which seems rare for a film that started as a wide release.  Also making slow but steady revenue, Hacksaw Ridge has now reached $57 million.  Unlike Arrival, its theater count has dropped by about 400 screens, but its weekend revenue has dropped 30%, 37%, 17%, and 39% since its opening.  Both of these films are benefitting from good word of mouth.  I think Hacksaw Ridge will end up slightly north of $65 million, while Arrival could end up at nearly $90 million.

Preview:

This weekend features the wide release of Office Christmas Party, which is the last movie on Joe’s roster.  Reviews so far are no promising; though 23 reviews it has a 39% T-meter.  Unless there is a significant sea change in critical opinion, it doesn’t look like it will be a significant earner for Joe, with an opening likely in the teens.  That could challenge Moana for the #1 spot, but long-term it does not bode well.  $20 million in earnings seems to be the best that Joe can hope for.

Given that and the slowing revenue of Arrival and Allied, Joe is clearly out of the running for 1st place, and because his roster is nearly all released, he establishes the threshold for last place.  He could end up with something between $260 and $280 million.  Paula has already surpassed that number.  Greg, with Rogue One waiting in the wings and a likely cap, exceeds that number.  That leaves Chris, Tim, and myself.

Chris likely has enough to get past that number, as he is already at $188.8 million, and is still receiving a decent amount of revenue from Fantastic Beasts.  The question is whether Assassin’s Creed will make him the kind of money he hoped when he bid $16 for it.  He also swapped out The Founder for Live By Night, the movie starring and directed by Ben Affleck that will see a limited release at Christmas before going wide in early January.

Tim is probably going to end up with over $200 million just based on what has released so far.  Sing is definitely being promoted as a big holiday movie.  It’s Illumination Entertainment, Universal’s animation department, which has made the Despicable Me franchise, The Secret Life of Pets, Dr. Suess’ The Lorax, and Hop.  This is their first Christmas season release.  All of their previous releases were Spring and Summer movies.  It feels like an especially crowded Christmas release calendar, which could cut into its revenue.  However, it will have over other movies for the younger audience over their Christmas break.

That brings us to my roster.  I have a lot riding on Passengers and the star power of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt.  There are no advanced reviews for the film yet, but there has been a pretty significant push in advertising.  My one concern, which I mentioned with Sing, is the crowded box office.  Passengers is opening a week after Rogue OneCollateral Beauty, Assassin’s Creed, Sing and a slew of award season releases are going to be ramping up.  Right now I’m sitting at $93.7 million.  All told, I should have about $100 million to show for The Birth of a Nation (a huge miss on my part), The Girl on the Train (another miss), and Hacksaw Ridge (a pretty solid supplemental piece).

Is there $180 in revenue between La La LandPassengers, and Patriots DayLa La Land opens limited this week before going wide opposite Rogue One and Collateral Beauty next weekend.  It’s gotten stellar reviews, still sitting at 95% through 84 reviews.  There has been significant awards buzz attached to it, with many people already putting it on the short list for Best Picture.  Patriots Day is a highly patriotic film about the 2013 Boston bombing.  Does it tap into the American Sniper/Lone Survivor audience?  It’s reviews are still holding strong at 92%, though with only 13 reviews.  It goes wide on January 13th, giving me three weekends of wide release to make some money.  Also, with January 24th being the date the Academy Award nominations are announced, I may need every little bump I can get out of that.  Ultimately, though, a lot will be riding on the T-meter for Passengers.  If the T-meter is south of 70%, I may be screwed.

Standings:

1. Paula – $302.7 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (63% X $71.5 = $45)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (51% X $84.2 = $42.9)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (20% X $33.9 = $6.8)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (91% X $215.5 = $196.1)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) – (95% X $12.7 = $11.9)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15)

2. Joe – $220.4 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$93.3 = $58.8)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (63% X $86.4 = $54.4)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (38% X $57.8 = $22)
$12 Arrival (11/11) – (93% X $73 = $67.9)
$5 Allied (11/23) – (60%$28.9 = $17.3)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9) (39%) (23 reviews)

3. Chris – $188.8 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) – (84% X $61.3 = $51.5)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18) – (75% X $183.1 = $137.3)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21)
$0 Live By Night (12/24)

4.Tim – $151.9 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (31%$17.4 = $5.4)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (19% X $14.8 = $2.8)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $35 = $28.7)
$37 Moana (11/23) – (96% X $119.8 = $115)
$19 Sing (12/21) – (75%) (12 reviews)
$1 Why Him (12/21)

5. Greg – $99.4 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (75% X $141.5 = $106.1)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/23) – (23% X $14.3 = $3.3)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) – (84%) (49 reviews)
$0 Fences (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (85%) (13 reviews)
$0 Hidden Figures (12/25) – (-5 million penalty)

6. Me – $93.7 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) – (73% X $15.8 = $11.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) – (44% X $75.1 = $33)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) – (86% X $57.2 = $49.2)
$8 La La Land (12/9) – (95%) (84 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21) – (92%) (13 reviews)
$19 Passengers (12/21)

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s