Fall Movie League: Week 13

Recap:

As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office this weekend.  It took in $155.1 million over the three days, which was right between the $140-150 million projections for it and the $160-170 million I had projected for it.  It was also favorably reviewed by critics, garnering an 84% T-meter rating.  It should continue to dominate over the Christmas weekend and most likely into the new year.  The 84% T-meter gave Greg a healthy $130.3 million in revenue, which was enough to vault him all the way up to third place in the standings for now.  Rogue One will most definitely cap, which will put him over $300 million and just behind Paula with three other movies to be released.  At that rate, Tim seems like the only person that has a shot of beating him, with Sing still waiting to take the stage.

While Rogue One had a monster debut, the same could not be said for Collateral Beauty, which came in well below expectations with a paltry $7.1 million over the weekend.  That was only good enough for fourth place.  It was also savaged by critics, getting only a 14% on Rotten Tomatoes.

In the repeat business, Moana was the only movie outside of Rogue One to make more than $10 million, coming in with another $12.7 million.  It’s total number now stands at $162.9 million.  To hit the $200 million cap, it will need to reach $210 million in box office receipts; that’s an additional $47 million.  It’s a crowded box office over the holiday season, but I suspect that Moana will probably leg out that $47 million by the end of league business on January 31st, though it could be close.

Fantastic Beasts now sits at $153.7 million in earnings for Chris.  I do not suspect it to make him another $50 million to reach the cap.  Office Christmas Party dropped by nearly 50% in its 2nd weekend down to $8.6 million.  Its total now stands at $31.7 million.  La La Land expanded to 200 theaters and took in an impressive $4.1 million from those 200 locations.  Along with the strong word of mouth and award consideration, it could be a steady earner for the next several weeks.

Preview:

This week is a bit bizarre as several movies are releasing on Wednesday and then even more are releasing in limited and wide form on Sunday, Christmas day.  Wednesday features the release of Sing, Passengers, and Assassin’s CreedSing is holding steady with its early reviews, clocking in now at 76% on 29 reviews.

After that, Wednesday gets ugly.  I had a lot riding on the star power of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt in centering my roster around Passengers.  Turns out, the reviews are highly positive about Lawrence and Pratt and their chemistry in the movie.  Unfortunately, their star power is betrayed by a terrible movie surrounding them that has an interesting premise but completely squanders it and wastes them.  Through 41 reviews it has a 32% T-meter, which essentially sinks me, I think.  Unless I get American Sniper money out of Patriots Day and serious awards buzz from La La Land, I don’t think I have enough to catch Joe.

However, with the reviews coming out for Assassin’s Creed, Chris might not have enough to surpass Joe either.  Assassin’s Creed is currently sitting at 15% on Rotten Tomatoes after 27 reviews.  With those numbers, he can’t expect much of any income from it.  His only chance is that Live by Night, directed by and starring Ben Affleck, has some appeal.  Surprisingly, no reviews exist for it yet.

Elsewhere, Tim did drop Why Him for SilenceSilence has a 97% T-meter with 35 reviews.  He takes a $5 million hit, but it should be worth it in the end.  A Monster Calls is at 85% after 55 reviews.  Hidden Figures has a 96% rating with 23 reviews.  Patriots Day sits at 88% with 17 reviews.

Standings:

1. Paula – $310.9 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (63% X $71.9 = $45.3)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (52% X $85.3 = $44.4)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (20% X $34.1 = $6.8)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (91% X $222.3 = $200*)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) – (94% X $14.3 = $13.4)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15) – (14% X $7.1 = $1)

2. Joe – $253.8 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$93.4 = $58.8)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (63% X $86.7 = $54.6)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (38% X $58.3 = $22.2)
$12 Arrival (11/11) – (94% X $86.7 = $81.5)
$5 Allied (11/23) – (60%$38.5 = $23.1)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9) (43% X $31.7 = $13.6)

3. Greg – $236.6 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (76% X $147.4 = $112)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/23) – (24% X $17.5 = $4.2)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16) – (84% X $155.1 = $130.3)
$0 Fences (12/16) – (-$5 million penalty) (93%$0.1 = $0.1)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) – (85%) (55 reviews)
$0 Hidden Figures (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (96%) (23 reviews)

4. Chris – $205.3 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) – (84% X $61.4 = $51.6)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18) – (74% X $207.7 = $153.7)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21) – (15%) (27 reviews)
$0 Live By Night (12/24)

5.Tim – $186.7 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (31%$17.4 = $5.4)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (19% X $14.9 = $2.8)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $35 = $28.7)
$37 Moana (11/23) – (96% X $162.9 = $154.8)
$19 Sing (12/21) – (77%) (30 reviews)
$0 Silence (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (97%) (34 reviews)

6. Me – $97.7 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) – (73% X $15.8 = $11.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) – (43% X $75.3 = $32.4)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) – (87% X $62.9 = $54.7)
$8 La La Land (12/9) – (94% X $5.3 = $5)
$19 Passengers (12/21) – (32%) (41 reviews)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21) – (88%) (17 reviews)

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