Fall Movie League: Week 14

Recap:

The final batch of year-end releases dropped over the holidays, and none of them could come close to unseating Rogue One.  It remained atop the box office and hit the cap for Greg, propelling him into first place, just a hair ahead of Paula.

Of the new releases, only Sing made any significant noise at the box office, as it took in $55.9 million from Wednesday to Sunday, and $35.3 million over the Christmas weekend.  It received a 71% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which means it earned Tim $39.7 million.  Given the school breaks this week and New Years weekend this weekend, it should continue to do strong business.

The other two major releases, Passengers and Assassin’s Creed, both underperformed at the box office and were critically excoriated.  Passengers, despite the strong chemistry and charisma of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt, only mustered a 31% on the T-meter, and made $22.4 million over the 5 days of its release.  Assassin’s Creed, over that same time, made $17.8 million and only got 18% on the T-meter.  Those earnings are paltry compared to what Chris and I were expecting them to earn when we purchased them in the auction.  I’ll be lucky if I see $30 million from Passengers.  Chris will be lucky if Assassin’s Creed gets him $15.  At this point, I think it’s safe to say the two of us are in a battle for last place, and I am most likely to lose.

Preview:

There are no more releases to note.  A few movies will eventually expand to wide releases over the next few weeks, but every movie so far has at least some income.  So with that said, let’s assess the races for first and last place.

Right now, I am bringing up the rear with $118.3 million and Chris has $209.9 million.  He going to continue to pick up a few million more from Fantastic Beasts, but it unlikely to make significant earnings off of either Assassin’s Creed or Live by Night, which currently sports a 39% T-Meter.  I think Chris ends up with a final tally somewhere in the range of $220-$225 million.  With Passengers at 31%, I am unlikely to see anything more than another $20 million at most from it.  Something in the $20-$25 million range in earning from that (seriously, what a disaster…).  That means that I’ve got to get somewhere close to $90 million from the rest of La La Land‘s run and from Patriots Day.  That’s a tall task.  La La Land is making pretty steady money.  I saw it, and it’s terrific.  I imagine it is going to continue to do steady business through the end of January.  As of writing this on Thursday, December 29th, it’s domestic gross through Wednesday the 28th is $22.2 million, which puts its earnings at just over $20 million for me.  At this point, the best case scenario I think I can hope for is that both La La Land and Patriots Day end up duplicating the numbers of Hacksaw Ridge.  If that were to happen, I could potentially get to around $230 million.  But that is still asking a lot.

At the top of the race, Greg is sitting pretty in first place.  Fences appears to be in a similar category to La La Land, a prestige movie that is doing steady business day in and day out.  He’s also got Hidden Figures and A Monster Calls yet to release wide.  Hidden Figures goes wide on January 6th.  I haven’t seen any indication that A Monster Calls will get a wide release.  That might be one of those movies that doesn’t find an audience.  So what can we expect from Greg?  I think a number of $350 million or more is not out of the question.  If Hidden Figures takes off, it could be significantly higher than that, and it would probably secure the victory for Greg.

Tim is the only other person with a shot of catching Greg.  Moana has done solid business into the Christmas holiday and looks like a pretty safe bet to cap now, which could happen by the end of this weekend.  Sing is also cruising right along.  It could be over $150 million in earnings after this weekend, which would add another $70 million or so to his current total.  Pencil in the added $29 million from Moana capping, and Tim is right there with Greg.  And then he’s got a month of earnings from Sing.  I don’t think Sing caps, but at its current pace, something in the $130 range or higher could be possible.  I didn’t think it was possible at the time, but I’m beginning to wonder if Martin Scorsese’s Silence will get a wide release.  Even without it, though, Tim could clear $350 million and beyond.  I think this comes down to Hidden Figures, ultimately.

Standings:

1. Greg – $312.7 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (75% X $148.7 = $111.5)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/23) – (24% X $17.7 = $4.2)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16) – (85% X $286 = $200*)
$0 Fences (12/16) – (-$5 million penalty) (94%$6.9 = $1.5)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) – (85% X $0 = $0)
$0 Hidden Figures (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (93% X $0.5 = -$4.5)

2. Paula – $312 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (63% X $72 = $45.4)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (52% X $85.4 = $44.4)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (20% X $34.1 = $6.8)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (91% X $222.3 = $200*)
$1 Edge of Seventeen (11/18) – (94% X $14.3 = $13.4)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15) – (13% X $15.3 = $2)

3. Joe – $261.2 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63%$93.4 = $58.8)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (63% X $86.8 = $54.7)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (37% X $58.4 = $21.6)
$12 Arrival (11/11) – (94% X $89.4 = $84)
$5 Allied (11/23) – (61%$39.3 = $24)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9) (43% X $42.2 = $18.1)

4.Tim – $243.4 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (31%$17.4 = $5.4)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (19% X $14.9 = $2.8)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $35 = $28.7)
$37 Moana (11/23) – (95% X $180.7 = $171.7)
$19 Sing (12/21) – (71% X $55.9 = $39.7)
$0 Silence (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (97% X $0.1 = -$4.9)

5. Chris – $209.9 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) – (84% X $61.4 = $51.6)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18) – (73% X $214.2 = $156.4)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21) – (18% X $17.8 = $1.9)
$0 Live By Night (12/24) – (39% X $0.0 = $0)

6. Me – $118.3 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) – (73% X $15.8 = $11.5)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) – (43% X $75.3 = $32.4)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) – (87% X $63.7 = $54.8)
$8 La La Land (12/9) – (92% X $13.6 = $12.5)
$19 Passengers (12/21) – (31% X $22.4 = $6.9)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21) – (80% X $0.2 = $0.2)

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