The season has come to an end. When we last left thing back in December, Greg had pulled ahead into first place and the only person who had a real shot of catching him was Tim. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I was about $90 million behind Chris and needed as much revenue as I could muster from my remaining movies. How did all of this shake out?
It seemed like Greg was going to run away with it at one point, given that Trolls and Hidden Figures both ended up being solid 2nd tier performers and he got over $200 million combined from them to go along with the $200 million he got from Rogue One. Tim did give him a run for his money, though, as Moana did in fact cap and Sing reached $188 million in its run, which I think was far higher than anyone anticipated from it. Unfortunately for Tim, none of his other movies generated significant revenue, with his 3rd highest earner being Ouija: Book of Evil at $28.8 million. Greg ended up winning the league, $458.2 million to Tim’s $426.3 million.
Did Tim’s dropping of Why Him? in favor of Martin Scorsese’s Silence end up costing him the title? In a word? No. In several words? It would have been close. After the $5 million penalty for picking up Silence, Tim only ended up earning $500k from it. Meanwhile, Why Him? made $58.8 million, with a 39% T-meter. That would have been good for $22.9 million for Tim, plus the additional $5 million that he was penalized for in picking up Silence. That would have bumped hit total up to $453.7 million. Since we round the totals to the nearest hundred thousand, a difference of $5 million would have prompted a closer look at the exact numbers, but Greg will still likely have prevailed. If Tim had somehow had the foresight to pick up Hidden Figures or Fences before Greg did, the outcome could also have been different.
Paula and Joe ended up being locked into their respective spots for 3rd and 4th for quite a while. Looking at how some of their movies performed, it’s easy to see a path to where they could have been in contention for the top spot too. If Paula spent the $10 on Inferno someplace else or had picked up Hidden Figures or Fences instead of Collateral Beauty when Rings got pushed back. For Joe, he only spent $50 of his $60 budget in the auction draft, looking back, that was not an effective strategy. Going an extra dollar or two in a couple places could have significantly increased his chances. For example, Joe got Jack Reacher: Never Go Back at the 11th spot in the auction for $8 and Office Christmas Party for $9 at the 17th spot of the auction. He got a combined $44.7 million from those two movies and the $17 he spent on them. The movie that went 18th in the auction? Trolls for $15, which made Greg $113.1 million.
Bring up the rear was the battle to avoid last place between Chris and myself. Chris had a deeply flawed strategy of only getting four movies in a season where box office revenues are always lower than the summer. It’s the absolute wrong strategy to employ in the Fall because you need to essentially hit on all four and you have zero room for error. Unfortunately for Chris, his big budget item, Fantastic Beasts, did not come close to hitting the cap, topping out at $169.5 million. His biggest mistake, though, was making Assassins Creed his #2 movie, a video game adaptation that was atrocious and only managed a 17% on the T-meter. There was no recovering from that.
The question was if I had enough to catch him. I had employed a high-risk, high reward strategy in crafting my roster, banking on the star power of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt to make a holiday blockbuster hit out of Passengers and surrounding it with a bunch of solid earners with high T-meters. With the exception of The Girl on the Train, those supplemental movies all hit on the T-meter at over 70%. Unfortunately, Passengers was a disaster of a script that could not be saved by the charms of J-Law and Pratt. That sunk my chances of competing and I was relying on La La Land, Hacksaw Ridge, and Patriots Day to keep me out of last place. Luckily, La La Land became the Oscar Best Picture favorite I anticipated/hoped it would be, being a steady earner week after week after week to eventually earn me $101.4 million by the end of January. Combined with the $22.7 million I got from Patriots Day and nearly $30 million from Passengers I managed to surpass Chris and avoid finishing in last place for the 2nd time in a row, outpacing him by $20 million.
So that wraps up the season. Greg will select a punishment movie for Chris that he will have to write a running diary for. Perhaps I will copy that from his email and post it here for everyone to enjoy.
The summer league is going to look a little different this year. Given the release schedule, we are looking to move up the start to early March to account for the release of Logan on March 3rd. And there is a good chance that we eliminate August as the schedule for that month this year doesn’t seem that interesting. We’re planning to hold the auction in late February. I believe the 19th is being tossed around tentatively. So we’ll be gearing up for that shortly!
1. Greg – $458.2 million
$15 Trolls (11/4) – (74% X $152.8 = $113.1)
$2 Bad Santa 2 (11/23) – (23% X $17.8 = $4.1)
$38 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (12/16) – (85% X $286 = $200*)
$0 Fences (12/16) – (-$5 million penalty) (95% X $51.1 = $43.5)
$1 A Monster Calls (12/23) – (86% X $3.7 = $3.2)
$0 Hidden Figures (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (93% X $106.8 = $94.3)
2.Tim – $426.3 million
$1 Masterminds (9/30) – (32% X $17.4 = $5.6)
$1 Keeping Up With the Joneses (10/21) – (19% X $14.9 = $2.8)
$1 Ouija: Origin of Evil (10/21) – (82% X $35.1 = $28.8)
$37 Moana (11/23) – (95% X $240.5 = $200*)
$19 Sing (12/21) – (73% X $258.3 = $188.6)
$0 Silence (12/25) – (-$5 million penalty) (84% X $6.5 = .5)
3. Paula – $313.3 million
$7 Storks (9/23) – (63% X $72 = $45.4)
$9 The Accountant (10/14) – (51% X $86.3 = $44)
$10 Inferno (10/28) – (19% X $34.3 = $6.5)
$27 Doctor Strange (11/4) – (91% X $222.3 = $200*)
$1 The Edge of Seventeen (11/18) – (95% X $14.4 = $13.7)
$0 Collateral Beauty (12/15) – (12% X $30.9 = $3.7)
4. Joe – $275.5 million
$13 The Magnificent Seven (9/23) – (63% X $93.4 = $58.8)
$5 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (9/30) – (64% X $87.2 = $55.8)
$8 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (10/21) – (37% X $58.7 = $21.7)
$12 Arrival (11/11) – (94% X $97.6 = $91.7)
$5 Allied (11/23) – (61% X $40.1 = $24.5)
$9 Office Christmas Party (12/9) (42% X $54.8 = $23)
5. Me – $254.6 million
$6 The Birth of a Nation (10/7) – (72% X $15.8 = $11.4)
$14 The Girl on the Train (10/7) – (43% X $75.4 = $32.4)
$9 Hacksaw Ridge (11/4) – (86% X $66 = $56.8)
$8 La La Land (12/9) – (93% X $109 = $101.4)
$19 Passengers (12/21) – (31% X $96.4 = $29.9)
$1 Patriots Day (12/21) – (79% X $28.7 = $22.7)
6. Chris – $234.2 million
$3 Deepwater Horizon (9/30) – (83% X $61.4 = $51.6)
$39 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (11/18) – (73% X $232.2 = $169.5)
$16 Assassin’s Creed (12/21) – (18% X $54.2 = $9.8)
$0 Live By Night (12/24) – (32% X $10.3 = $3.3)