Summer Movie League: Week 1

Recap:

The season has kicked off, and it has done so with a bang.  Or, rather, a SNIKT! as Logan opened this past weekend to an impressive $88.4 million, easily claiming the #1 spot at the box office.  No other movies released this weekend were on anyone’s rosters, so Logan is all we will discuss in this section.

The $88.4 million is a slightly above what predictions were for the weekend, which had been in the $74-$81 million range.  More importantly, the critical acclaim for the film was very high, clocking in at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.  That means that Joe keeps $81.3 million in profit off of its opening weekend.  By comparison, X-Men Origins: Wolverine opened to $85.3 million in 2009 on its way to $179.9 million in revenue while The Wolverine opened at $53.1 and ended up making $132.6 million.  It looks like Logan will give X-Men Origins: Wolverine a run for its money and could very well surpass it in fairly short order due to the positive reviews and strong word of mouth.

One thing that gives me pause in being overly excited for its long term outlook, though, is looking at the 2nd weekends of both of the previous movies.  X-Men Origins: Wolverine dipped a staggering 69% in its 2nd weekend while The Wolverine dipped 60%.  Some of that can be attributed to those flicks being released in the summer.  Star Trek opened the week after X-Men: Origins: Wolverine in 2009, but The Wolverine was followed up at the box office the weeke after by 2 Guns. This March is unusually loaded, with Kong: Skull Island opening this weekend and Beauty and the Beast opening the week after.  Given the likely overlap in audience demographics, I would not be surprised to see another drop of 60% or so from Logan in its 2nd week.  If it doesn’t, then it could mean that it has some added sustainability.  I think the range for it’s final box office total will be somewhere between $185-$230 million.

Preview:

There is only one movie on these rosters getting a release this weekend, and that is the king of the jungle’s return to the theater.  Kong: Skull Island is schedule to open this weekend and early signs look quite positive.  With 46 reviews so far, it’s at 83% on the T-meter.  Looking around, early projections seem to be pegging it in the $40 million range for its opening weekend, but if the reviews are strong I think they could push it closer to $50 million than $40 million.  It will be competing with Logan for the #1 spot.

Elsewhere, two movies already have some advanced reviews.  Beauty and the Beast releases in two weekends and it already has 48 reviews and a 73% T-meter rating.  That is a little lower than I was hoping for, but it still seems like a safe bet to make over $300 million.  As long as it doesn’t drop below 70% on Rotten Tomatoes I won’t get too worried.  It’s already tracking for an estimated $120 million opening weekend and according to Fandango is the fastest-selling family film in history.  Meanwhile, T2: Trainspotting has a 78% T-meter with 81 reviews.  The only question surrounding that movie is what kind of business it does.

Standings:

1. Joe – $81.3 million
$28 Logan (3/3) – (92% X $88.4 = $81.3)
$5 Power Rangers (3/24)
$2 Life (3/24)
$12 Ghost in the Shell (3/31)
$1 Going in Style (4/7)
$17 Wonder Woman (6/2)
$4 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (7/21)

2. Greg – $0
$39 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (5/5)
$6 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (5/12)
$14 Alien: Covenant (5/19)
$4 Rock That Body (6/16)
$6 Transformers: The Last Knight (6/23)
$1 The Emoji Movie (8/4)

3. Tim – $0
$1 T2: Trainspotting 2 (3/17) – (78%) (81 reviews)
$1 Gifted (4/7)
$26 The Fate of the Furious (4/14)
$20 Cars 3 (6/16)
$20 War for the Planet of the Apes (7/14)
$2 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (7/28)

4. Paula – $0
$1 All Nighter (3/24)
$1 The Zookeeper’s Wife (3/31)
$2 Smurfs: The Lost Village (4/7)
$3 The Circle (4/28)
$31 Despicable Me 3 (6/30)
$31 Spider-Man: Homecoming (7/7)
$1 Annabelle 2 (8/11)

5. Me – $0
$41 Beauty and the Beast (3/17) – (73%) (48 reviews)
$1 CHiPS (3/24)
$7 Boss Baby (3/31)
$11 Baywatch (5/26)
$5 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (6/2)
$1 Bad Dads (7/14)
$1 Girls Trip (7/21)

6. Chris – $0
$10 Kong: Skull Island (3/10) – (83%) (46 reviews)
$5 Snatched (5/12)
$8 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (5/26)
$12 The Mummy (6/9)
$8 The House (6/30)
$22 Dunkirk (7/21)
$4 The Dark Tower (7/28)

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