Summer Movie League: Week 2

Recap:

Kong is king. The giant ape conquered the wolverine at the box office this weekend, opening at a higher than anticipated $60 million.  That outpaces the projections that had it somewhere in the $40 millions.  Kong should enjoy a few weeks of solid earnings as Logan seems to be its only real competition for its key demo until The Fate of the Furious comes out next month.  It received pretty positive reviews too with a healthy 80% T-meter on Rotten Tomatoes.  It looks like Chris can expect to get around or over $100 million out of it during its run.

In its 2nd weekend, Logan dropped to 2nd place with an additional $38.1 million.  Last week, I wondered how much of a drop off it would have in its 2nd weekend, as the previous Wolverine and a few of the X-Men movies had taken a 60% hit from opening weekend to 2nd weekend performance.  Logan fared slightly better, dropping 57%.  It’s still a big drop, but not as precipitous as it could have been.  Its domestic box office total now stands at $152.9 million, which is already better than The Wolverine did it its entire theatrical run.  It should pass X-Men Origins: Wolverine by the end of this coming weekend at $179.9 million.  Joe has a very good shot to approach $200 million with it.

Preview:

There are two movies releasing this Friday.  The highly anticipated Disney live-action version of Beauty and the Beast and Danny Boyle’s T2: Trainspotting.  Advanced reviews of both have been in the moderately positive range.  T2: Trainspotting has been hovering in the high 70s for quite a while.  It’s currently at 77% based on 87 reviews and it looks like it will stay in that range.  As for Beauty and the Beast, it is as I had feared last week.  The T-meter has continued to inch down little by little as the number of reviews grows.  Currently with 91 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, its T-meter sits at 67%.  I had hoped that it would stay above 70%.  I still expect it to do big business, especially in its opening weekend, but the lower the T-meter falls the more difficult it could be for it to hit the cap of $250 million.  At 67%, I need it to take in $373 million for it to reach the $250 cap.  That’s a big number.  Even if it’s not the most favorably reviewed Disney adaptation, the original is deeply beloved by fans.  They will go see this in droves.  The question is how long will that last?  If people lose interest because people who went to see it opening weekend aren’t impressed, then I’ve got a problem.

A few reviews have come out for Boss Baby.  At 6 reviews, it’s got a 33% T-meter.  None of the negative reviews are extremely negative, so I think this movie could still go in a few directions.  If the mixed early reviews are any indication, I think it could end up being around 50% for the T-meter.  I think it’s ceiling is probably 55% max, but it could go the other direction too.  Too early to tell.

Elsewhere, we have had a shake up in the rosters.  After seeing the trailers online and hearing about the screenings at SXSW, I announced my intentions to pick up Atomic Blonde and Baby Driver.  When movies are added this way, everyone else is given the opportunity to bid on them using their earnings in a silent bid process.  The minimum you can bid is $5 million.  I ended up getting Baby Driver for $5 million, but really $2 million as I had $3 left over from the draft auction that I could use toward the cost.  I dropped CHiPs in order to pick it up.  Joe ended up outbidding me for Atomic Blonde, getting it for $6 million, and he dropped Going in Style for it.

Hindsight being 20/20, I probably should not have tried to get both of them at the same time.  But, frankly, I didn’t actually know how the process fully worked, so a tactical mistake on my part.  Live and learn.  I would have dropped Bad Dads for Atomic Blonde, but I retain it for now.  As there is still no word on casting, script, or director for it, I am fairly confident that it is eventually going to be pushed back from the scheduled 7/14 release date.  If/when this happens, I will get a free add/drop move to replace it with no penalty.  Since it is a 7/14 release, though, I may not have that luxury since there are not many available movies that will be released after that.  The sooner news comes out about Bad Dads the better.

Back to Baby Driver and Atomic Blonde for a moment, both of them created a lot of buzz at SXSW this weekend and their trailers were released on YouTube at the end of last week.  Baby Driver has a 100% T-meter on Rotten Tomatoes right now after 16 reviews.  Atomic Blonde has 8 reviews and a 63% T-meter.  Both of them sound like very entertaining action movies that I can’t wait to see.

Standings:

1. Joe – $134.7 million
$28 Logan (3/3) – (92% X $152.9 = $140.7)
$5 Power Rangers (3/24)
$2 Life (3/24)
$12 Ghost in the Shell (3/31)
$17 Wonder Woman (6/2)
$4 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (7/21)
$0 Atomic Blonde (7/28) – (-$6 million penalty) (63%) (8 reviews)

2. Chris – $48 million
$10 Kong: Skull Island (3/10) – (80% X $60 = $48)
$5 Snatched (5/12)
$8 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (5/26)
$12 The Mummy (6/9)
$8 The House (6/30)
$22 Dunkirk (7/21)
$4 The Dark Tower (7/28)

3. Greg – $0
$39 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (5/5)
$6 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (5/12)
$14 Alien: Covenant (5/19)
$4 Rock That Body (6/16)
$6 Transformers: The Last Knight (6/23)
$1 The Emoji Movie (8/4)

4. Tim – $0
$1 T2: Trainspotting 2 (3/17) – (77%) (87 reviews)
$1 Gifted (4/7)
$26 The Fate of the Furious (4/14)
$20 Cars 3 (6/16)
$20 War for the Planet of the Apes (7/14)
$2 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (7/28)

5. Paula – $0
$1 All Nighter (3/24)
$1 The Zookeeper’s Wife (3/31)
$2 Smurfs: The Lost Village (4/7)
$3 The Circle (4/28)
$31 Despicable Me 3 (6/30)
$31 Spider-Man: Homecoming (7/7)
$1 Annabelle 2 (8/11)

6. Me – -$2 million
$41 Beauty and the Beast (3/17) – (67%) (91 reviews)
$7 Boss Baby (3/31) (33%) (6 reviews)
$11 Baywatch (5/26)
$5 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (6/2)
$1 Bad Dads (7/14)
$1 Girls Trip (7/21)
$0 Baby Driver (8/11) – (-$2 million penalty) (100%) (16 reviews)

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1 Comment

  1. I didn’t watch either trailer before bidding, they both look great though, I had been trying to predict Atomic Blonde’s box office for a few days, so you sort of startled me, I just didn’t even consider Baby Driver, only because I was already locked on,

    Like

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